Simple Guide To Knowing When To Get In And Out Of Crypto Currencies
Whether you are new to cryto currencies or you have been around for awhile this could either be a basic guide or smack some sense into you. LOL
Almost all of us got in during a bubble. Otherwise we would have never heard of it or been compelled to take massive action. When you get in during this time there is always going to be a thought that "This time is different. It is never going to stop going up this time." This simply isn't true. Crypto is like the stock market or real estate market on rocket fuel. The rises are way more aggressive and the drops are way more devastating.
I'm going to talk about getting out first since we are in a boom cycle.
Getting Out
1) When everyone is bragging about how much they have earned.
2) When everyone is posting videos of their mining rigs.
3) When people are quitting their jobs and are going into crypto full time but don't have hundreds of thousands or millions of dollars either owned by them or investors floating them that much.
4) When non-technical people are talking about Bitcoin and crypto currencies.
5) When you see people who don't know what they are talking about on CNBC talking about Bitcoin.
6) When the chart looks like this.
7) When people keep making videos / posts saying Bitcoin is going to $100,000. Will it happen eventually? Possibly but when they are saying that and the price is at $1,000 or $2,000 then it most likely isn't going to happen in the near future.
8) When the crypto network you are wanting to invest in can't handle the transaction volume.
9) When the exchanges are crashing because they can't handle the surge in volume.
Getting In
1) When no one is talking about Bitcoin or other crypto currencies.
2) When YouTubers stop posting videos about mining because it isn't profitable unless you have a mining farm in China with a waterfall poring off the side of a mountain into a hydro power generator.
3) Your local Bitcoin Meetup group hasn't had a meeting in 6 months.
4) Even you start to believe in the Bitcoin Obituary Stories.
5) No one seems to care about Bitcoin or other crypto currencies.
6) You don't want to talk to anyone about Bitcoin or other crypto currencies.
7) People think you are a scammer again for ever talking about Bitcoin.
8) When people are on suicide watch because their cryto currency investments are practically worthless.
Hopefully this is helpful and others can identify with this. If you are new possibly relate it to the feeling you felt in other recession situations like the Dot com bubble burst or the real estate bubble burst. Good luck and be smart! :-)
Thank you for reading my post and please consider following me @brianphobos
Oh those obituaries are just too much: https://99bitcoins.com/obituary-stats
But actually I had many of those feelings because I only got into bitcoin because of steemit last year and never have purchased any myself.
I was the guy at around $30 saying the thing is going to fail because the blockchain is getting too big and requires too much storage space just for people to have a wallet. Silly me. :/ But we can't live in the should haves.
The obituaries are funny to look at. They are non sense click bait mainly but it is easy to start believing some of the stuff and thinking. "maybe it will fail" "maybe the government will outlaw it." It is all plausible but Crypto is the future. Timing is very tough though with it.
Lol love the obituary thing thats great haha .... business insider the same source that posted the "how bitcoin can realistically reach 500k" or whatever the title was .... just goes to show how sensationalist some of these ... even well known.... websites are ....
Yeah it is just click bait sensationalized stuff. Time stuff right though and you can have a ride into orbit!
Do you really think its a bubble phase yet? Im saying this generally curious for your opinion, not to be condescending or sarcastic. I know the charts look crazy, but we saw the "blood bath" of a few days after as cryptos retraced and whatnot.... i personally want btc to come down more to get a better buy price. It looks like it will a little but for how long i dont know.. but my thing is ... i dont think its a bubble yet because like 1% of the world population even know what bitcoin is.... i think volume will cause these types of moves as u have swing traders profiting off them and just more people getting in at insane amounts..
I keep having to remind myself that although we can learn from history and from other markets, this is a brand new beast. I cant think of anything relatively like it at all besides forex which is only similiar in a few characteristics. To me, i could be wrong, but regardless of what big whales are manipulating whatevr market with big amounts or not .... this is the closest thing to a truly free market ive seen or read about. So to think about a bubble how we traditionally do to me also makes me second guess.....if that makes sense.
I'd say we are currently in either a bubble or dead cat bounce. There's going to be some falls before the large returns again. Either way only invest in what you can afford to lose
I agree with Crytofunk. It might pop back up here in the next few weeks but that will most likely be the dead cat bounce. I'm going to expand a little more on my thoughts as well.
We were all saying the same stuff you are saying above back in 2013 / early 2014 that it was different and that suddenly Micro$oft is accepting it, Overstock, Dell...etc...etc. There was good news at every corner except Mt. Gox. But despite the overwhelming great news the price kept sliding further down. It was terrifying and this time will be no different. My assuming is that it will slid to around $500 or so over the next 8 months. There will be small pops and drops before then but there are still issue with the Bitcoin network which will ultimately be resolved. Let's just be conservative. Let's say it only bottoms at $1000. Well it has a ways to go before then.
About the only 1% of the population knowing what Bitcoin is, that may be true but it won't change unless there is a compelling reason to get on board. There are compelling reasons to get on board but the on ramps can still be difficult. Not as bad as it was in 2013 but still not totally seemless for people who don't know much to buy in. If a Bitcoin ETF is able to get approved that changes a lot of things because then people could become exposed to it a lot more easily through their brokerage accounts.
Also there are problems with having all these separated pools of liquidity that run 24/7/ 365. It makes it so it is a lot more thinly traded then on the stock market.
This is all great advice, deserves a post of its own.
Thanks! I might put something together with some of this stuff. It is hard for the new people to have perspective now just like it was hard for me to have perspective in 2013 and 2014. The people who got on board in 2011 were shaking their head at me I'm sure.
Is it that bad now? I hope you overdid it with getting out :(
It might shoot up some more. Who knows. It could be possible for it to get to $3,000 or something and then fall again but in general I'm literally hearing all the same stuff and seeing all the same things I saw in 2013. Plus just look at the chart. It is a far to aggressive move in a short amount of time.
Bitcoin is legit. Don't get me wrong. This stuff is the future but it can drop on you like a guillotine and finish you if you aren't careful.
That graph is scary!
The thing that is nuts is that it is an actual screen capture from a Bitcoin chart. LOL
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