Bitcoin long term view, why this is not THE bottom and why we will see prolonged bear market

Bitcoin has been in a downtrend for last five months. It has had a few pullbacks or rallies if you wish, to the upside but failed to make higher high every time. As volatility and volume is decreasing for almost 4 months now, violent move and that wished volume is coming soon. Why I think move to the down side is more probable than market turning around here and starting new bull market? I'll post some charts and will try to make sense of what charts are showing us. Another thing worth to take in consideration is general sentiment. It is relatively hard to measure it in twitter polls, it may be manipulated by bots, not having enough data, every twitter account may have slightly different audience based on his/her view of the market. That being said results of these polls are changing frequently not only based on who makes the poll but based on time of the poll as well, every little price movement has direct correlation with people emotions. But I have some intraday data plus I'll give you some insight of my experience of traders behavior from past days or weeks. Enough of this intro and let's throw in some charts.

First of all the monthly close in a few days, so I'll start with a monthly chart.

No fancy indicators needed for this one. Simply by looking at the price action from last few months we can see price action engulfing almost whole previous month, it is not perfect bearish engulfing, but also not a bullish sign.

Weekly is showing us a lot more data.

Moving averages - Lagging indicator but it can show weakness or strength in a market. Close below 50 week EMA is definitely a bearish sign and even stronger (imo) when it's second close in relatively short time frame, ideally we would want to see rejection of that level, bouncing of that price area and closing above. Didn't happen and closed bellow. In the past when that happened, trend reversed after spending some time around 200 week EMA, never closing bellow.

RSI - In a bull market RSI between 40-50 zone acts as a support, in a bear market 50-60 zone acts as a resistance, you can see that in the picture above. Historically when RSI broke down 50 level and didn't break up right away it reached lower, over sold values and bottomed out before the trend ended and new one started.

CMF - Is volume based indicator, basically showing us buying and selling pressure. Buy pressure is greater if value is above 0 level, sell pressure is greater if value is below 0 level. However, nothing is perfect. It can fluctuate around 0 level and give some false signals as we can see in early 2016. But in my opinion we have to look at overall market conditions. At that time price was already out of months long accumulation, successfully retested previous highs and forming continuation pattern. On the other hand in mid 2015 when selling pressure started to be more significant and value was below 0, market structure was completely bearish and gave us additional signal that bear market was not over yet.

What we can expect with some degree of confidence based on all of this data is that we'll drop to that first green area. It is high volume area, 4358 is 0.786 fib level. Again based on history and how markets behave, we can expect that this area will be defended by bulls. Can we end the bear market in that area? Sure. But at this point I am leaning towards that it will be just a bounce zone. This is obviously just a speculation now and will need to be reevaluated when or if we get there. True reversal area could be between 3000 and 2500. But again, just a speculation now. People don't want to compare this bear market with the last one, simply due to the fundamentals. And I agree that it's different market and bitcoin is stronger than ever, no mt. gox hack, huge development going on, exciting stuff being built, hash rate steadily growing, segwit adoption, lightning network slowly being adopted etc. list would be long. But you can't deny crowd behavior and market cycles. With all that in mind we can already see that current market is moving much faster. Approximately 33%-39% faster. If we'll se more down side and this speed rate is respected, bottom could be some time around September this year. Generally speaking, sentiment is changing very frequently. Hard to say if my view is biased, might be, I can't deny that. But I'am trying to be as objective and not emotional as much as I can. Experience from last few days is that people are still relatively high on hopium that we will see ATH later this year. As much I'd like to see that happen (who wouldn't), not enough people were shaken out of their positions imo. Unreasonable bulls calling bears literally idiots even tho there has been no market structure break. Except for higher lows (and it is not a market structure break). But no higher highs, so I don't take that as a valid argument that we are out of the woods. Media went nuts about death cross few weeks ago and now all of the sudden are calling for 50k by end of the year. Which is another not very convincing signal this might be over.

This post is a little longer than I expected. I have prepared few more charts but it would be super long and probably boring. Let me know if you liked this post and I will make another one with the rest of my charts. But I might make it anyway because I find them interesting.

Can I be completely wrong? YES, 100%. But this is my view of the market at this very moment. And I will change my mind if I see break in market structure, that is break above 10k at the moment, previous swing high. Until then market is bearish and we can do nothing about it.

*Disclaimer. This is not a trading advice, this my personal view. No trades should be based on this analysis. It is for fun purpose only.

Feedback, shares and all this stuff will be appreciated.

You can find me on twitter here https://twitter.com/bitcoinSalvador