Bitcoin Analysis: 38% Drop Confirmed, Should We Expect Lower Prices?

beyondthehodl (28)in #bitcoin • 6 years ago (edited)

It has now been a little over a week since my last post but somehow not much has changed!

This is the power of being able to make an informed analysis. It allows you to not have to look at your phone every minute, hour or even day. When you have certain levels marked out and ONLY when those levels are hit, then you look at the market this allows you to have more peace of mind and not let this market run your life!

I bet many of the people reading this article have taken up some sort of small business and quit their 9-5 jobs in order to build something of their own and they figured that this market would be a great way of doing so. However, the adrenaline and addiction of seeing your investment going up or down has become all that you care about and its caused you to lose sleep, or take time away from other important things because this is all you can think about. I have been through this type of harmful psychological battle when I first started trading in other markets and let me be the first to tell you that it is NOT fun.

This is why you need to have a plan when you come into this market. So that you are able to sleep well at night knowing only once certain –correct– levels are breached should you be worried about your investment. Believe it or not, a large percentage of trading is about psychology more than anything. It is my hope that through the teachings here at Beyond The Hodl you will be able to gain not only the monetary advantage, but the ability to gain control over your mindset and act with assertiveness and not act out of fear.

Looking back at last time I wrote an article, I said,

Ever since we hit the $11,800 – $11,350 zone again, we went on to hit 2 of the 4 targets that I called which are as follow:

Target 1: $10,000
Target 2: $9,000
Target 3: $8,500
Target 4: $7,200

At the time of writing this article #BTC is almost to our third target at a low of $8,500.

Below you can see the 3 different scenarios that could happen, but in my opinion bitcoin is looking really weak and might just go down one more time before rising. If we do end up making a new low we will not stop until we see $4,700 – $5,000 zone.

As you can see from the excerpt above of our previous article we have now seen the “one more” move down that I was expecting.

If you have been following along on instagram, which is where we are most active and give live updates on how our articles are unfolding, then you would have known that I expected target #3 to not find any long term support because we had hit a stronger resistance zone between $9,900 and 9,550. Since this was not able to be broken I had called another move lower to our 4th target and potentially to the $4,700 – $5,000 range. This means that the second and third scenario are still in play so we will be watching them closely. As of today we came within $100 of the fourth target at $7,200, so this is where price should start to get really interesting and the ranges will begin to expand to range between 10%-30%.

So what do I expect to happen now?

For me to believe that we will be bullish I would need to see prices move and stay above $8,800 and then $10,000 for reassurance. However, I do not think this is what we will see. I believe that we will consolidate for a bit and try and fool everyone into thinking that we are finally going to begin the uptrend, only to crush all the weak holders with one last aggressive and painful move down to the $4,700 – $5,000 level. This is what I would love to see because i believe it would end all the messing around and hit the zone of lowest levels i would see #Bitcoin hitting this year. Of course, this market does not move based on what I “want” to see, so we will need to wait and see how prices react and my levels.