RE: Why I’m bullish on Bitcoin in the current uncertain stock market
Whilst I would be more than happy if BTC goes up... I'm not convinced that it is really a guaranteed long term proposition that it definitely will. You mention near the end, that it is mathematics... I'm afraid that I must take exception to that. The code and cryptography securing Bitcoin is mathematics... the rest is not mathematics...
There will come a time when the halving reduces the incentive to mine... and the transaction fees will have to be the main economic inventive to mine. Remember, scarcity alone does not mean that there is economic value... there is also the necessity of the network effects of usage.... and at the moment, even the most wishful interpretation for the adoption of Bitcoin is far far far from a critical mass of network effect! Halving only increases scarcity... but let's be honest to ourselves, the network effect of demand is just not there at the moment...
Again, I stress that I would be more than happy if BTC does take off... but hope shouldn't blind us to weaknesses in our analysis!
Good points there, halving will increase scarcity but we are still far from major adoption. Looking at the past chart price action makes me want to see patterns repeating in the fibonacci retracements and cycles, and in that way see price movement as mathematical. Whatever patterns happened in the past may well repeat, like the 85% retracement from the ATH and the next bull run, even though it may be slower and lower than the last bull run.
Yes... these patterns are really enticing... however, there are in-built assumptions that might or might not be valid!
Absolutely.