Some Random Thoughts
Today is a good time for some random thoughts regarding the state of current crypto market.
- Price is always right, at any given time
- It is not easy to pick top or bottom
- There is no "wise old man" in financial markets, and everyone make mistakes
- No one can predict price, if they say they can by drawing lines on a chart, they are either stupid or lying or both
- What people can do is that they can talk about probability and position themselves
There are more; but this will generally keep you safe. It kept me safe for over 20 years in the financial markets and will keep me safe in the crypto market which is nothing but another financial instrument (the price part of it, not the technology).
With all that said and done; above is the popular chart of bitcoin dominance or relative cryptocurrency market cap. As of this writing the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrency is $106B. This time last year it was 422B and went as high as $813B in early Jan. I think on hindsight we can perhaps agree that $800B was too high too fast. Someday perhaps we will get there, but many good things will happen before that.
The other thing is the relative dominance of BTC. Summer of 2017 saw the first alt coin rally or ETH rally and the BTC dominance dropped to near 40%. Then the rally cooled off, and the BTC dominance again went up to above 60%. Then the thanksgiving and Christmas rally happened in alt-coins and the dominance dropped again to near 30% at the height of the crypto market in Jan 2018. Then all hell broke loose and here we are now with BTC dominance (read flight to safety) again nearing 60%. I don't think we will reach the 80-90% levels of early days(2015 and earlier) even if many projects shut down. I will be actually surprised if we break 60% level in any meaningful ways.
Which essentially means, something got to give in near future, in next few months. But what exactly it is I have no idea. But it is logical that current price trend can not continue for very long.
Disclaimer: This is NOT professional advice, this is all just my own opinion and experience. I am NOT a Certified Financial Adviser. Consult professionals for any financial, accounting or legal related questions you have.
Charts are created in Tradingview.com, which is a free service.
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all awesome points especially no.1 and no.3 !
btw what's your sentiment/view on steem ?
Most crypto assets are highly correlated with BTC in the near term. I do not know if steem can sustain a $500 BTC. Steemit platform probably can not. Will see, like I said I do not like to pick bottom or top, and I do not think it can be done outside sheer luck.