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RE: Is Bitcoin Still Bullish? Where Does it Make Sense to "Load Up"?
I agree with your assessment. I was looking at 2000 for a turnaround or at least a stopping point for the decline. I was also looking at 1850, so we're on the same page here. The 2000 thing has pretty much already happened. I guess we'll see if it's pushed lower and whether that next stopping point is correct.
There must be something to this charting and analysis stuff. Some people call it "snake oil" and "bullshit." I call it, "the ability to read the context of markets and the ability to identify patterns." Not everyone understands how to do that, apparently. But it's certainly not mysterious.
Yeah, I'm already ignoring the $2,000.00 level as a long for the reasons stated above. $1,800 to 1,850 still looks attractive to me. I might even throw a bid in around $1,620 ~ 1,650, since it had a lot of pivots around that area AND the 200 DSMA is likely to be close by for added support by the time price would reach there.
As to technical-analysis and whether it's legit...well, I've made a lot of money off of trusting what I read about certain patterns and trading patterns that I notice, so either there's something to it or I've been really lucky up until this point. Either way, I'm happy :)
One thing that is indisputable though. During the selloff from teh pre-Memorial Day high pretty much every bitcoin technical analyst was looking at the 1850 to 1800 area as the "buy the pullback!" price. The low for that particular move was only $1880 tho. So none of those guys have the right to say they called the turnaround that led to this rally. :-) Now I'm sure everybody will be saying the exact same thing you are, that $1800 to $1850 will be a good "buy the pullback!" re-entry point. I have a "suspicion" we will find out reeeal soon how many of them actually follow their own advice. Technical analysis becomes technical anal-ysis if it doesn't work. Doesn't it? :-)
Well, I know I'll be buying there, as I already have the bid set up through my broker.
That said, I'm not going to throw my whole wad at it, cuz I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if price fell through that "wall" like a hot knife through butter, especially if a bitcoin hard-fork happens around that time.
As it stands, I have bids through the 1800's, 1600's and 1200's and I don't plan to go back and fidget with any of them. I DON'T have stops in place on any of those trades, btw.
I'm still in profit on all of my original bitcoin position, most of which I bought when it was ranging between $200 and $350. My highest buy was at $2200, but that was for only 1 BTC. My next lowest buy to date was at $1600 for something like 3 BTC. After that, I don't think I have a buy above $750. I longed over 30 BTC from the $200 ~ 350 buys (first sell came in above $750), just to give you an idea of where I am in terms of overall profit.
Imo, every single one of your buy points will be taken out with lower prices over time as China begins to implode and gives up on manipulating bitcoin prices and moves to the "safety" of the U.S. dollar and govmint debt assets. You do realize that it is likely China that is manipulating the price of bitcoin at least...I hope. :-)
Maybe. Or maybe they'll never get executed because price explodes from here.
Manipulation occurs everywhere that the human hand touches, so, yes, I do realize that. Manipulation isn't a problem for me, I just want to profit with the manipulators!
I don't pretend to know where bitcoin is going in the short or long-term, but I know what's worked for me in the past and that's what I base my decisions from. If I'm wrong, I'll take losses on these small positions but I'll still pull a nice profit overall, since I'm riding on free bitcoin -- 26.5 free bitcoin, to be exact :)
All this being said, I would likely play this situation the same, with or without a prior, very profitable position, I'd probably just go a little lighter on what I buy and wait for signs of confirmation (of new uptrend) before I'd consider adding to that position.