RE: The Bitcoin Price Action is Excruciating to Watch
After going over a lot of historical Bitcon chart data, I've come to an inescapable conclusion. In BTC, the trendlines that are by far the most important (and hardest to break) are the ones that appear on a log scale chart. Which brings me to my next point:
We haven't broken the real downtrend yet. In fact, every time we have come anywhere near it, we've turned back with double the momentum that we had on our approach.
We still have some time to chop around in this bear market - potentially until September. But an extended bear market is a very good thing for Bitcoin right now - not just because it needs to correct after going parabolic. During a bear market, Bitcoin will be out of the general public minds', but all of the entrepreneurs and developers who have been bootstrapping the ecosystem and rolling out critical infrastructure will be hard at work. The next bullish impulse cycle will be Wave V of the Cycle. In Bitcoin, 5th waves of higher degree tend to extend. If we were to get on the road to 50-100k before summer begins, existing infrastructure may fail to cope with the influx of new users, and that's a surefire way to stop a crypto bull run dead in its tracks.
This chart is an example of what happens to Bitcoin when an influx of new adopters is too much for existing infrastructure to handle.
Thanks for taking the time to share your thoughts man. Really interesting.
This is the key for me. It’s not only about the dollar investment in the coin, it’s the ivestment of labour, time and effort into developing the technology. This is what’s still going parabolic and will be reflected in price in the end.
Exactly! But if we start another bull run too soon, there's a distinct possibility it will abort halfway through. If exchange infrastructure buckles under load across the board, it could cause panic - because (from the public's perspective) what good is an exceptionally volatile speculative asset - if you might not be able to sell it when you want to: when it starts crashing and you should be buying, because you already sold into the masses' greed, but of course in the real world "Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered".
If we run with the bulls again too early - this could be a bubble in the end - if it rises too fast, without anything to support it... Personally, I'm working towards creating a reality in which Bitcoin Pizza Day marks the start of a Grand SuperCycle, but I recognize that at this point it could still go either way.
By the way, have you looked at EURAUD, GBPUSD, or GBPEUR since the daily closed yesterday? There are some juicy setups developing there on weekly and monthly timeframes, I think. EURAUD in particular looks about ready to go...
I haven’t done any forex analysis this weekend actually. Find me on Twitter and share me some charts?