RE: The Real Bitcoin: which Bitcoin fork will win?
UPDATE: Given the hashrate signaling for SegWit is at 76% and climbing fast, it appears unlikely that a contentious fork will occur on August 1.
I am not running a Real Bitcoin Foundation (aka TRB) full node, so I do not know if that legacy Bitcoin chain has forked off already, but I doubt it because afaik signaling on the nVersion field of the block header is not incompatible with the legacy Bitcoin transactions. EDIT: TRB will accept SegWit blocks but SegWit transactions are spendable by anyone! I sourced that link on Trilema. I verified that Satoshi’s Bitcoin indeed enables anyone to spend P2SH.
BTC spent with a SegWit transaction will be stolen by the first miner who can put a spend transaction in a block of the TRB (legacy Bitcoin) chain.
It appears that any HF will only begin once there are recognizable SegWit transactions in a block, which the Real Bitcoin will refuse to mine on. Note I read that the format of a SegWit transaction is such that it can’t be detected until it is spent.
So it appears to me we will get a significant rise in the BTC price after August 1 (perhaps to $4000+?) which will be pushed by the enthusiasm about the hashrate support for SegWit and perhaps also people selling BCC to buy BTC creating more buying demand.
And then August 23 or so, I expect the SegWit chain to fork off from the minority hashrate Real Bitcoin one, and Bitcoin kingpin Mircea Popescu will begin selling the SegWit BTC and buying the Real BTC gradually driving the price of the former down and the latter up and then the hashrate will gradually switch over as well. Charlie Shrem (@charlieshrem) is mocking Mircea Popescu’s statement, “As far as anyone will be able to perceive, miners simply left”.
Afaik, to spend your BTC on the SegWit fork so that it can not be replayed on the legacy Bitcoin will require
either mixing with some transactions from blocks that derived from a block containing a SegWit transaction,but(this probably does not scale well and)these can not begin until August 23.Before then, the other way isto attempt to double-spend to yourself on the SegWit fork and legacy Bitcoin over and over until it happens. You’ll need to import your private keys into separate wallets for each fork.
Note we might see altcoins initially dropped as BTC is rising, then the altcoins may catch up. As the HF chaos hits August 23 or so, we might see LTC skyrocket as the community realizes SegWit is dead on Bitcoin and Litecoin already has SegWit. Especially if BCC is defeated so that Jihan Wu (Bitmain) only has Litecoin remaining as their main scaling solution altcoin.
But we might see a collapse in all crypto perhaps after moving up to a peak before everyone realizes SegWit is fucked. Another crypto winter may be upon us after this blow off top ends with theft of the SegWit transactions.
EDIT:
What's your time frame for that?
Difficult to say how long after Aug 23 it will take for there to be enough SegWit transactions to steal, so that miners break away from SegWit chain and mine on real bitcoin chain.
Afaics, it has been technically plausible to double-spend on the Core fork since the implementation of BIP65 in 2015, because OP_CLTV is a NOP2 on The Real Bitcoin fork.
Thus to double-spend on the Core fork, first broadcast a transaction containing OP_CLTV that can not be added to the Core fork until some distant time in the future and run a Real Bitcoin (TRB) full node to download the real blockchain and verify that your transaction was immediately added to the legacy blockchain. Then issue another transaction on the Core fork to double-spend.
However there is a risk if the transaction on TRB is later orphaned and your Core transaction is replayed on TRB chain then you can lose your BTC. So the safest would be either to exchange your TRB tokens for fiat or another token, or mix into your Core transaction some UTXO that derives from a SegWit transaction, so that it can’t be replayed on TRB because TRB doesn’t implement SegWit. Do not issue a SegWit transaction (as opposed to mixing in a UTXO that derives from a SegWit transaction) because your BTC could be stoken on TRB if you do. The problem with incorporating SegWit is that you have to do it before buyers are smart enough to realize that they do not receive TRB when the transaction has any SegWit history. And buyers may be wary of SegWit transactions any way because it is new.
However, the problem is that it is probable that no miner is still issuing blocks that enforce the protocol rules of The Real Bitcoin. The changes in the protocol have not yet incentivized a fork, thus although The Real Bitcoin does not reject OP_CLTV transactions, it also probably has no way to get them into a block earlier than the Core fork will.
There is no sense in mining your own Real Bitcoin block, because later when some significant hashrate decides to also do so (in order to spend all historic SegWit and derivative transactions to themselves), it is not like they will build on top of your block.
So the above technique can be used (to make double-spending more deterministic, i.e. you will not need to try over and over again) as soon as a significant amount of hashrate has started enforcing The Real Bitcoin protocol, which means it will not delay OP_CLTV transactions since they are a NOP2 in the legacy Satoshi Bitcoin.
I do believe The Real Bitcoin will ultimately be the fork that survives and prospers because SegWit writes (as explained more in my blog) a free futures option for legacy Satoshi Bitcoins (aka TRB) on all user funds that pass through any SegWit transactions such as Lightning Networks. Whales will choose (rally around the only Schelling point) to sell the fake Bitcoin that is not secure for many reasons, and buy The Real Bitcoin.
Disclaimer: I am just a bot trying to be helpful.
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