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RE: Phoenix rises in 2020; all altcoins (including Bitcoin Core) will be 50+% attacked/destroyed

in #bitcoin5 years ago

I can’t insert the following into my blog above, because Steem(it) has a 64KiB limit on the size of a blog.

Simon Chandler blogged in July Crypto Bubbles: Why Traders Believe Altcoins Are Overpriced:

[…] However, while certain mainstream observers simply regard the entire cryptocurrency market as one giant balloon, other individuals have been offering more nuanced claims recently, assertions that revolve around a distinction between Bitcoin and the vast majority of altcoins.

More specifically, veteran trader and author Peter Brandt recently compared the altcoin market to the dot-com bubble, claiming that Bitcoin's recent strong rallies won't be replicated by other cryptocurrencies. Similarly, ShapeShift CEO Erik Voorhees argued last year that Bitcoin and altcoins form two separate markets, while on July 1, crypto-Twitter personality Lil Bubble published a parody music video that perfectly encapsulated the current plight of altcoins, which have been slightly flagging behind Bitcoin as it increases its market dominance to 62.2% (as of writing).

But try telling that to Peter Brandt. Not only did the author and founder of Factor LLC compare altcoins with the dot-com bubble in a tweet at the end of June, but in speaking with Cointelegraph, he doubled down on his comparison, predicting that the vast majority of altcoins will disappear in the not-too-distant future:

“I believe that the advance in late 2017 and early 2018 in altcoins will prove to be bubbles. I am of the firm belief that 95% of alt-coins will eventually be worthless and that BTC will occupy 80% to 90% of the total market cap of cryptocurrencies. No doubt several of the altcoins and macro-cap coins will find utility in specialized niches. It remains to be seen which coins these will be.”

These are strong views, but aside from the fact that Bitcoin has been rising in value more quickly than its rivals, it finds support in a number of quarters. For one, American broadcaster and Bitcoin cheerleader Max Keiser recently predicted during a CNBC interview that altcoins won't enjoy the same kind of rally that BTC is currently witnessing, and that most will fall away:

“Look, the dominance index is at 60% again, and it's going back to 80% or 90%. Because that's the only logical place for anyone who wants to be in crypto to be. But the short answer is, in my view, the altcoin phenomenon is finished.”

In fact, Keiser's views don't stop there. He told Cointelegraph that there's a big gulf between Bitcoin and other assets, particularly in terms of whether they've hit their “true” market value. Keiser wrote via email:

“Bitcoin is virtually the only financial asset ‘not’ in a bubble. Sovereign bonds are in multi-hundred year bubbles. The USD and various fiat money are in historic bubbles. Stock markets are in bubbles. Most property is also in a bubble. Gold and gold mining stocks are undervalued and good places to invest, but their upside is limited as compared to Bitcoin.”

Nonetheless, even with this separation, only the most hardened BTC champions believe that the altcoin market is on the verge of withering away. Indeed, as trader and CryptoOracle partner Lou Kerner told Cointelegraph:

“While most altcoins are probably significantly overvalued, some, like Chainlink, may emerge as very valuable entities. So it makes more sense to look at these on a case by case basis then make generalizations.”

Josh Rager also holds that, overall, crypto isn't really in a bubble phase, although he does admit that certain aspects of the cryptocurrency market and industry have been bubble-like in recent months:

“The cryptocurrency market as a whole isn't a 'bubble' but I do believe we saw a bubble with ICOs and crypto assets not backed by solid fundamentals. In 2017 all you had to do is put together a small team, build a website and have a white paper to be considered a potentially valuable company. But as we saw, the majority of these companies 'run out of funds' by the end of 2018 and their assets were dumped on exchanges.”

More importantly, Rager believes that current market prices are sustainable, and that likely developments and innovations will gradually push it higher. According to Rager:

“The psychology of 5-digit Bitcoin over $10,000 has already set in as we saw sub-$10k prices were quickly bought up over this past week. Bitcoin and crypto miners seem to be holding on to more Bitcoin because they're profitable once again so there is a lack of selling pressure from miners overall. Not to mention all the new instruments for Bitcoin and the crypto market including BAKKT and institutions getting into the market more. And even LedgerX was recently approved to offer physically settled Bitcoin Futures to retail investors.”

As Rager concludes, “All these signs show me that the market is maturing and we're not in any type of mania.” Other traders agree that things have changed decisively since 2017, as Scott Melker — a trader at Texas West Capital — noted to Cointelegraph that recent advances have come from more sustainable sources:

“I know it’s cliché to say that ‘this time is different,’ but the evidence seems to support this belief. The recent increase has been fueled by institutional investors — retail has only started to pay attention in the past week, when the price advanced to nearly $14,000. During the last bull run, average people were already interested long before the price reached $10,000. The mania has not set in this time.”

But assuming that the bubble-esque market of today does evolve into a fully fledged and sustainable industry in the coming years, it still remains to be seen which cryptocurrencies will still be around in a decade or so, and which will have gone the way of the dodo. Once again, opinions on this are mixed, with Bitcoin bulls unsurprisingly arguing that the first cryptocurrency will be one of the few present-day crypto’s still alive.

“In ten years, most of the cryptocurrencies we know and love will probably be in the crypto graveyard,” Glen Goodman predicted. He went on:

“As we saw with Netscape, AOL and AltaVista in the early Internet era, it isn't necessarily the first-movers in a new industry that end up the biggest successes. Perhaps even Bitcoin itself will be usurped by something faster and even more ingenious. A household brand name like Bitcoin is a valuable thing but it does not make a brand bulletproof. Just ask Nokia. Or Blackberry. Or Kodak. Or Blockbuster. Or Toys ‘R’ Us.”

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