BITCOIN BTC/USDT Correction Analysis 8/4/2018
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
- BITCOIN BTC/USDT correction follow up/ UPDATE
- See LINK for previous analysis
- The pattern that has formed looks more like a bullish wedge versus a bull flag
- Bitcoin broke support at $7200, hit $6940, and has been consolidating at the $7000 levels
- It looks like there is a higher possibility that $6800 will be tested after all
- Original hypothesis is still intact, but there are 2 potential pathways from here:
- Scenario 1 - Continued correction before bull run
- A small bounce back up to $7200 levels
- A continued drop down to $6800, before the reversal and a start for the next wave up
- Weak volume so far, and a number of buyers waiting on the sidelines for a correction to $6800
- If there is another drop to $6800, I would expect a much stronger response and move upwards
- Scenario 2 - a reversal happens at the $7000 levels
- A more significant bounce occurs
- Bull volume comes in - driving the BTC price to $7300 or beyond
- Confirmation of: an end to the correction, reversal, and an initial move to 9.5k with a very large green candle pushing BTC prices past $7300 - this should happen sooner than later - the longer that BTC consolidates in this area, the higher the likelihood that BTC will form a bear flag and have another leg down
- MACD and RSI look like they are starting to bullishly diverge
- RSI is very oversold on the 4 hour chart and smaller time frames
- Daily RSI is trending downwards, but is starting to curl up
- Scenario 1 - Continued correction before bull run
INVESTOR NOTES:
To be clear, these notes are from the perspective of a day/swing trader. The notes above are not applicable to long term investors. Corrective price action and intermediate spikes in this market are of little or no consequence to anyone holding for long term for larger percentage gains.
- If you are an investor for the long term, all of these prices are great buy zones
- Buying at $7700, $8200, or even $9000 is of little or no consequence when you believe the price of Bitcoin will one day be $50,000 and beyond
- Good investors will accumulate over time, constantly cost averaging their positions, with confidence that current market prices do not represent the true value of the asset in the long long term (anywhere from 6months - 4 years)
- Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies are still in its infancy as an asset, with only a few hundred billion in its total market cap - as compared to the trillions in the majority of all other asset classes
- Patience is key
- I am a long term BULL
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LEGAL DISCLAIMER:
I am not a financial advisor, nor is this post intended to be financial advise. I encourage you to do your own research before investing, or trading, any coin, token, stock, or security. This blog is intended for me to document my own personal analysis, charts, thoughts, opinions, trading decisions, and experiences. If you would like to learn more about trading, cryptocurrencies, and the resources I utilize to trade and invest, see my previous post - LINK.