Still Bearish Short Term

Hi guys,

I wrote a long post two days ago explaining why I think we're going lower before a reversal.

This is a quick update to confirm my thoughts on this.

As you know, the moving averages are the best, most simple tools I like to use to analyse the market.

I was looking at the chart this morning and realized that the 21MA is now crossing the 300MA.

I looked back over the last few months to see what happens when the 21MA crosses the other ones.

I ended with this messy chart full of lines, arrows and circles.

What I observed is that every time the 21MA crosses another one, there's a strong drop that follows.

Mid January: 21MA x 50MA --> 37% drop.

Early February: 21MA x 100MA --> 50% drop.

Late March: 21MA x 200MA --> 30% drop

Today: 21MA x 300MA --> ?

The past doesn't necessarily predict the future, but there's a big chance we're about to see something similar here.

We've now had two weeks to try getting back above the 300MA, we failed.

The 21MA crossing the 300MA is a confirmation of that.

The other indicator I pay close attention to, is the yearly support line.

I did not make this one up, I've seen several experts using it as well.

We've had three major bottoms over the last year: in July at 1,9K, in September at 3K, and in February at 5,9K.

Those bottoms are all connected by a single line, which we call the yearly support line.

As of today, this line is exactly at 7180.

It keeps on rising while BTC keeps on falling, so we lost that support.

We went below it about 12 days ago, and had 4 attempts at getting back above it. All failed.

So this is why I'm still bearish on BTC, even at these low levels.

I think we need to drop to at least 6k, more likely lower than that.

I don't personally believe in the dramatic 2-3K scenario, but 5K I do see happening.

Here are the things I want to see to believe in a trend reversal:

1. High volume kicking in

2. Getting back above the yearly support line

3. Getting back above the 300MA (currently 7,5K)

Then, and only then, I would start to feel confident in BTC.

The final confirmation would be to make it back above the 200MA (currently 9,5K).

As I've said before, for the long term investors, all prices are extremely good right now, and you might want to keep some fiat on the side in case it dips lower.

And for the traders, remember to play by the rules of a bear market:

Buy only safe dips, have a stop limit on each trade, and don't be afraid to sell those 10 to 30% runs, because they don't last more than a day or two.

Let me know your thoughts on this, what is your strategy, how are your playing the market at the moment?