If history repeats itself...

in bitcoin •  2 months ago

Keeping my eyes on crypto twitter for a few months, too often have I read that history repeats itself and that if you want to know what's going to happen and in which direction the crypto market is heading you should look left. Left meaning into the past, on charts. That's what I just did after witnessing a bloody red sell-off on almost all of the cryptocurrencies recently, except for some "forms of Bitcoin" that are pumping very strange lately.

To make myself a proper image of the "left side" of Bitcoin I took a look at the one year chart on coinmarketcap and remembered very detailed how I slipped through my fingers the opportunity of buying BTC at $3,000 last year do to a lack of attention and understanding on how to do that with my Romanian bank account and Romanian exchanges, but that's another story. One that I will post about on September 15 as this was the date last year I am talking about, when Bitcoin "crashed" due to China banning it and then starting a great bull run.

Coming back to the theory that history repeats itself, even in the case of Bitcoin, then, according to the chart, we're gonna have to face some sort of a panic crash of the king of crypto this month, followed by alts as usual, and then witness that long awaited upward trend that is supposed to FOMO lots of dumb money, like I also was, and make new ATHs by the end of the year. At least that's what the history would do if it were to repeat itself. However, I think that nobody knows that for sure or if it does is not going to spread the word on twitter and CNBC to let anyone know it's to time to buy cheap and sell high. I wouldn't do that either.

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Plus, as much as I am expecting such a bull run and the opportunity to finally get some profit out of my investment I don't think it will happen this way. Because... This bull run is SO EXPECTED by almost anyone in the market by more than half a year, searching for every reason or clue that would trigger it and probably that's why it isn't triggered yet. Last year nobody expected what happened, at least nobody having a big mouth in the media, but it still happened and it did that out of nowhere. Bitcoin left many of us with the mouth open waiting for it to moon, while some wise ones really took good profits out of it.

Another thing that I think is telling us it's not going to happen the same as the last year and in almost the same time frame is the never ending chart comparisons of BTC with gold and the bear market of this year with the one from 2014-2015. I consider that every moment is unique and thus every year containing such moments is also unique and that's why I am not expecting any of these theories to be fulfilled. Now, I might have gotten a bit pessimistic over time, but I see a lot of expectations with fixed dates and patterns and that's why I think is not going to happen this way. Expectations too often are ruined and...maybe it's meant to be this way.

Regarding the sentiment of the market I feel like it's not going to crash any time soon and we're not going to see BTC at $3,000 again or even $1,500 as I saw some price predictions on twitter, but I don't see any bull run either. At least not in the near future. A matter of fact I expect that to happen when we expect the least, or at least I and many other inexperienced investors and traders. So, yes, I am guided right now in this regard by the famous quote: expect nothing and you will never be dissapointed.

Thanks for your attention

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The chart looks good for another bull run!!

Nice article with good information and explanation

Thanks to @cicbar resteem I discover this excellent and very well written post.
I think you are fully right in everything you wrote despite I’m still expecting that to happen but, of course, I’m not going to killmysel if it doesn’t happen in short or medium time...time is relative...
Don’t invest more than what you can afford to lose... this is what people have to learn.
Cheers