It's hard to be certain regarding most things crypto related. But it is better to be a skeptic than a blind believer. Binance had profits on par with age old Deutsche Bank and they have a reputation to maintain. It's hard to think they'll do anything to ruin their status as the #1 exchange. Fake hacks are more useful for a small to mid-range exchange.

On the other hand being on top gets a lot of attention. The 2% stored in hot wallet is still a big deal. Maybe the hackers were insanely good with a lot of preparation. Maybe they even had some inside help related to APIs. Different people can make different theories. It's good to keep an open mind. But I'm not fully convinced that this was a staged hack. After all the SAFU fund will be use to pay back those who were affected. If Binance really wanted they funds, never creating a SAFU fund would have been an easier option. The incentives don't match up very well.