An early guide to 2020 prospects

Yes, it's way too early. Yes, Democrats should focus on 2018 right now. But for those of us who enjoy speculating, here are some likely (and unlikely) candidates who would like to defeat Donald Trump and Mike Pence on November 3, 2020.

SENATORS
Most of the 2020 speculation is centered around the Senate.

Elizabeth Warren, Massachusetts
Senator Warren has been a favorite for progressives ever since she was elected in 2012. Although she is certainly immensely popular among Democrats, she's not doing very well in the polls right now. She seems to be aware that her main issue in a Democratic primary would be the lack of minority support. A poll of likely voters found that she would only win 6% of both African Americans and Hispanic voters. It is going to be very hard to win a Democratic primary without significant minority support. Of course, there's a lot of time between now and 2020, and she has been focusing on racial issues and civil rights issues a lot more recently. She denies, like any self-respecting 2020 prospect, any presidential aspirations, but there are clear signs that she's actually considering a run.

Brian Schatz, Hawaii
How many Senators can say they received 70% of the vote in their state? Brian Schatz can, and he remains very popular in his state. Only Senator Sanders does better. He's the second youngest Democrat in the Senate. He's among the best Twitter users in the Senate. He's very progressive and smart. He supports medicare for all, he's been outspoken on climate change and immigration. So why have you never heard of him? Why is he literally on no lists of potential 2020 candidates? Your guess is as good as mine.

Sherrod Brown, Ohio
Senator Brown from Ohio is a populist from a key swing state. He's not a charismatic, young, pretty face but he's sincere and very passionate. He has been receiving more media attention recently. An angry rant in the Senate about tax reform went viral on Twitter, and the media loved his feud with Orrin Hatch. Although he could certainly win states like Ohio, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan, he will probably have a hard time getting minority support, just like Elizabeth Warren now and Bernie Sanders in 2016. The only path to the nomination for Brown is the unlikely situation in which both Sanders and Warren for some reason decide not to run.

Kamala Harris, California
Senator Harris has built a very progressive voting record during her time in the Senate. So why are progressives so suspicious? Her blue dog record as attorney general is one reason. However, some on the left are impressed by her leadership on DACA and her being the first Senator to endorse and co-sponsor Bernie Sanders' health care bill. She was one of the first 2020 prospects to actually make moves that indicate her intention to run, and she was one of the first subjects of speculation. However, early 2020 polling does not show significant support for a potential candidacy or sufficient name recognition.

Bernie Sanders, Vermont
If Bernie Sanders decides to run, he is going to be one of the front runners. He is very popular among Democrats and independents, and many progressives believe it was a mistake of Democrats not to nominate him in 2016. One of the reasons Sanders was defeated in 2016 was the lack of minority support. Recent polling suggests that is no longer a major issue for him. Senator Sanders would be 79 in the fall of 2020, which might concern voters.

REPRESENTATIVES

Eric Swalwell, Adam Schiff & Ted Lieu, California
These congressmen have three things in common: all three are from California, all three seem convinced that Russian interference in the 2016 election is a winning issue, all three voted in favor of the NSA warrantless surveillance bill. Wearing a Trump/Putin 2016 hat before voting to give the Trump administration massive spying powers might get the attention of Resistance Twitter, but it is not going to help in a 2020 primary.

Tulsi Gabbard, Hawaii
Representative Gabbard is adored by Bernie fans. Her 2016 support for Bernie Sander's campaign has made her very popular with Bernie's most hardcore supporters. However, some progressives seem very eager to forget some of her very conservative positions. Just like her father, who was an anti-gay activist, she opposed same-sex marriage. "As Democrats, we should be representing the people, not homosexual extremists", she said. She also opposed abortion. She has changed her opinion in 2012. She is privately still opposed to same-sex marriage and abortion, but she now no longer believes the government should make these decisions. Yes, she has a progressive voting record, and yes, she is a veteran, and yes, she's been very anti-interventionist. But Democrats are unlikely to nominate someone who has said the things she said about 'homosexual extremists'.

John Delaney, Maryland
John Delaney is the first candidate running for the 2020 election. The general consensus is that Democrats are going to nominate someone to the left of Hillary Clinton in 2020, a strong liberal fighter. John Delaney disagrees. He seems determined to convince Democrats that America wants a centrist Democrat focused on bipartisanship in the White House.

Joe Kennedy III, Massachusetts
There are two opinions about Joe Kennedy: either you think he deserves to be congressman, Senator or president because he is a Kennedy, or you think he shouldn't be in politics because he is a Kennedy. Bobby Kennedy's grandson has been a congressman since 2012. He has been a progressive, in general, although he's opposed to legalizing marijuana and he takes corporate money. He did vote against the NSA warrantless spying bill. Many people thought his SOTU response was disappointing in it's lack of policy proposals, too.

Tim Ryan, Ohio
Tim Ryan is a progressive populist. He certainly seems interested in 2020, given his frequent trips to early primary states.

GOVERNORS
Most presidents have previously been governors. Recent democratic candidates who were governors include Bill Clinton, Michael Dukakis and Jimmy Carter.

John Hickenlooper, Colorado
John Hickenlooper's term as governor is coming to an end. He might consider running for president as a centrist.

Jay Inslee, Washington
Jay Inslee is the ultimate generic Democrat. He's been pretty effective as governor.

Steve Bullock, Montana
Steve Bullock is a centrist/center-left governor in a very, very red state. He didn't win thanks to a scandal, he won because he managed to convince enough people to vote for him. He remains a popular governor and a possible dark horse in 2020.

FORMER VICE PRESIDENTS
Joe Biden, obviously.

Joe Biden, Delaware
Joe Biden is really popular. He isn't ready to leave politics, yet, and Democrats just can't let him go. On some level, a lot of people think this is a bad idea: Biden makes gaffes all the time, he's really old, he has run for president two times before and his handling of Anita Hall's testimony is under new scrutiny. Still, he's as charismatic as it gets, he often pushed Obama in a more liberal direction, he absolutely crushed Palin and Ryan in debates and he would crush Trump in a debate, and he appeals to both white working class people in Pennsylvania and black communities in South Carolina. With Biden, Democrats would take a huge bet: either he wins spectacularly or he fails spectacularly.