A few thoughts on Biden dropping out:

in #bidenlast month

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  1. I think this is definitely the right decision for both electoral and governance reasons. Electorally, survey data indicates Kamala Harris or other plausible candidates have better odds than Biden. And those data don't consider 1) their superior ability to campaign and prosecute the case against Trump, and 2) the likelihood of more "senior moments" by Biden. From a governance standpoint, even if Biden remains just barely competent now, there is a good chance that will no longer be true at some point in the next 4 years.

  2. Biden deserves credit for his self-sacrifice here. Most models still had him with about a 20-30% chance of winning. A 20% chance of being president for another 4 years is a lot better from a power-hungry politician's point of view than a zero chance. This is one of many ways Biden is a better person than Trump. That said, there is a double standard here in favor of politicians. In most professions, we don't consider it a great act of self-sacrifice if a person steps down because he or she can no longer do the job, due to age. It's just something we expect people to do.

  3. Should Biden also resign the presidency, as well as leave the race? Maybe. But recall that the governance responsibilities of the presidency and campaigning for election are essentially two full-time jobs. It's plausible Biden has enough fitness/energy to do one, but not both at the same time.

  4. I've said it before, and will say it again: The idea this is an "elite" coup against Biden is belied by the fact that polls show a large majority of voters (including most Democrats) wanted it. Polls show concern about Biden's age over a long period of time.

  5. That said, it's also worth noting that the "insider" campaign to get Biden to stand down is not of recent vintage. At least some insiders foresaw these problems as early as last year, and began to try to persuade Biden to stand down from reelection back then. I can't tell you how I know this. All I can say is I do know it, and the info comes from trustworthy and well-informed sources.

  6. We don't yet have the proper historical perspective to assess Biden's presidency, and won't for some time. But I think it's a mixed bag. Biden was excellent on some issues, but terrible on others. He did great good in expanding options for legal immigration more than any other recent president, and in mobilizing the Western alliance to support Ukraine (though not always providing as much weapons as he should). Biden also deserves some credit for swift (by the standards of the federal government) distribution of the Covid vaccines. On the other hand, we have Biden's near-criminal indifference to our growing fiscal crisis, exacerbated by his dubious "stimulus" bill, and his illegal and harmful efforts to forgive hundreds of billions in federal student loan debt. Biden also deserves blame for continuing most of Trump's awful tariffs, and the illegal Title 42 expulsions (he did finally end the latter, but replaced it with other illegal and flawed asylum policies). The above is just a brief summary of what I think were some major highlights and lowlights of Biden's presidency. Much, much more can be said, but not here.

  7. For those keeping score, yes, I think Trump should drop out, too. And, no, he's obviously not going to do so merely because I said so.

  8. While I am no fan of Kamala Harris or the other 3-4 most likely D nominees, I would vote for any of them as a lesser evil relative to Trump. The issues of immigration, trade, preserving the Western alliance, and menaces to the democratic process easily outweigh Trump's advantages on a few other issues. That's especially true given the Trump-era GOP's growing hostility to free markets, accentuated by the selection of Vance as VP nominee.

  9. My endorsement almost certainly won't help him. But if Kamala Harris becomes the nominee, I think she should name Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro as her VP nominee. He's somewhat less bad on policy than the other possibilities, and has obvoius electoral advantages (60% approval rating in the key swing state he's governor of). What I really want to see is the Jared Polis-Shapiro ticket. But that obviously is not going to happen.

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