I just sent 10.5 SBD to @buildawhale - Am i stupid?
Have you noticed that the bid-bots are rather quiet?
The current price of a 1 SBD at bittrex is currently just over $14. Surely we should all be cashing our hard-earned SBD's out this instant?
I certainly wouldn't advice against doing this, or heading to the internal market to buy some STEEM and powering that up. Maybe you'd like to do a bit of both, that makes sense too. So why am I sending 10.5 SBD to a bid-bot, worth around $147 at the time of typing?
Lets see what the math says...
source
I sent 10.5 SBD over during @buildawhale's last bidding round, you can see the results of this using a couple of tools:
@yabapmatt's bottracker, that @aggroed has recently got involved in, presumably after a couple of lemonade's last weekend when they met to set the bid-bot world and Steemit to rights.
I also like to check this tool: https://steemworld.org which is a pretty decent live feed of the action regarding an individuals account.
As you can see, they are quite closely matched in showing potential payout, which is around $25.50.
So what's the deal here? Sending $147 worth of SBDs (bittrex price) over to a bid-bot, for a $25.50 return, which also reduces at payout due to Curation rewards?
ARE YOU NUTS? Lets see......
Looking at this reward alone, separate from the total reward of the post, we will assume that the final reward will be $25. I'm going to take 25% curation rewards from this (even though this is likely to be closer to 20% - see this post and top comment for details)
So 25% of $25 is $18.75, worse case scenario with regards to curation reward deduction at post payout time. Lets round it up to $19 just to be kind and make the numbers easier.
This is looking pretty dire, yes? $19? Not worth it! bid-bots are bad for Steemit, etc - What and taking your SBDs out of the platform to the exchanges is good?
I've chosen 50%/50% for this post - 50% Powered up STEEM, and 50% in SBDs. So I divide $19 into 2, and get the following:
$9.50 worth of Steem Power
$9.50 worth of SBDs
$9.50 in Steem Power is, at the time of writing, $9.50 divided by the current market price of STEEM - approximately $1.94. This totals 4.89 Steem Power. Well.. it's a start!
Next up, $9.50 worth of SBDs. Misleading on the payout screens, and should be something like 9.5 SBDs. So pretty much what was sent to @buildawhale in the first place.
Did i win or lose then?
In this particular bidding round, I calculate pretty much broke even - assuming the price of SBDs is the same when my post pays out.
Are my calcs. right? Anyone?!
Cheers
Asher @abh12345
IMHO it's a gamble. SBDs are pegged and should be at 1 USD. If the level returns to normal before your post pays out you might loose 'big'. At the current levels it's better to just sell them I think.
This is a good point. A gamble. I like the occasional gamble :D
Safest to sell out at present, although if you don't need the cash, powering up is also an option.
Cheers!
I didn't say what to sell them for. Powering up is an excellent idea atm. My point is that the levels won't stay like this. But that's my guess, also a gamble. They might also rise further.
This article and the comments have some explanations: https://steemit.com/trading/@cryptographic/what-is-going-on-with-sbd
If everyone does really quit using bid bots because of the price of SBD I bet they're going to be lucky people who spend a few SBD for almost %100 upvotes from large bots. I'm going to be watching them closely the next few days.
From what I've seen some of the bid bot owners make it impossible to get a good deal by outbidding their own customers.
Yes I heard about this, and it doesn't seem right to me.
Proof?
We're talking about whales here and ones who throw their flag around like a banhammer. I'm not gonna name drop but you can go to the biggest ones wallets (ctrl F) and search the accounts belonging to the owners. They're in there with bids bigger than anyones.
I think they are work checking out for sure, if you get the bidding window right. I've seen 10 SBD sent for a $50 vote, that's certainly a nice return (at the current SBD rate)
Good point. I can understand that the sudden increase in SBD is sudden and also profitable for the vote sellers. However they should address this.
The rise is sudden, but we get our payout in SBDs too, so this works for everyone?
It all goes back to how you value your crypto, either from a fiat standpoint or not. If you're solely looking to accumulate crypto bid bots are still a profitable way to do just that.
True. If you are in for the long haul and don't need the fiat then this is working at the moment it seems.
I think you have taken good decision. Payouts will be after 7 days. Price of SBD will not be same after 7 days. Moreover, you are getting 9.5 SBD which is close to 10. You are winner :) @abh12345
Cheers!
Yes hopefully SBDs will continue to fly and I'll get a nice return 👍🏾
Great analysis of SBD vs $ and the returns from a bidbot. Yes, cashing in this surge in price will be wise enough. Thank you.
Thanks @coolguy123!
Just one point as a minnow that hasn't been mentioned here. If you are relatively small then bidbots can help you build reputation. Every upvote from a large bot such as buildawhale has a significant effect on your reputation score compared to a bunch of minnows voting on your post.
For me breaking even on average is worth it if I can up my reputation, which hopefully in the long term will get me more followers.
It's a long game though. No shortcuts here.
i liked this your post
I liked that you liked my post!
thanks my dear friend
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STOPHmm you can use @hellowhale for low bids. Thank you for post.
Instructive
mhmm :)