If STEEM Reaches even 25% of Reddit's Market Valuation...
According to WorthofWeb.com Reddit is worth approximately...
At present there are nearly 50 Million STEEM tokens. With approximately 99% of STEEM tokens being locked up for steempower infusion, we can expect little if any more than 10% inflation. Assuming that rate of inflation, in 5 years the total number of STEEM in available would be just a little over 80 million. Seeing that Reddit reached its current $4Bil valuation in approximately 10 years of launch it is not out of the realm of possibility that if STEEM succeeds it could reach 25% reddit's current value within 5 years...
So just for fun, let's assume that within 5 years STEEM is worth $1Bil. If close to 99% remains locked up for the 5 years, this would mean that each of the 80,502,000 STEEM will be worth in the realm of...
$12.50 / 1 STEEM
How high do you think the chances are that STEEM could reach 25% of Reddit's Marketcap in 5 years? What % of your STEEM would you be willing to continue storing as steempower if this marketcap were highly possible?
This for me makes signing up for a free account a no brainer.
Get $3 worth of Steem. If left untouched (as Steem Power) there is a chance it could x10 or x50 in value within the next 5 years (if it reaches a fraction of reddit's value). $30- $150 -for doing nothing but signing.
If you go a step further and take 5 or 10 minutes a day to browse the site and upvote 4 or 5 posts you like, you can compound those earnings. Who knows $150 - $500 maybe more. For doing nothing more than browsing a website for interesting articles.
If you go a step further still and post useful content... the sky is the limit.
But WHO KNOWS.... It might all go to pot and be worth nothing!
What's guaranteed is you'll come across some interesting people and may learn a thing or two along the way .
And don't forget...you will be guaranteed a better chance for doing pretty much the exact same thing you would do on reddit! :D
as of today...
http://steemd.com/
...with my calculations (61,803/66,594*100=92.8%)
so approximately 92.8 % of STEEM tokens are locked up right now NOT 99%
Am I missing something ?
reference:
http://steemd.com/
total_reward_fund_steem has also a lot of steem in it. If you want to know how much there is liquid steem, use this formula:
current_supply - total_vesting_fund_steem - total_reward_fund_steem = liquid steem
I wonder why cmc is so off... (that was where I got the current supply from)
They don't include some of the Steem (Power) held by Steemit, since they consider that not to have been "distributed" yet. They do something similar with Ripple and some others.
Interesting.
The numbers are a little confused by the overall analysis is valid. There will be about 100% per year Steem inflation (that is once things reach a steady state; the first year is higher). Powered up Steem is inflation-protected which means you get more Steem to offset the effect of inflation (with perfect inflation protection, if inflation is 100% your Steem Power would also increase 100%).
What this means is that in 5 years there will be much, much more than 80 million Steem, it will be more like billions (though I think after 3 years there is supposed to be a 1-for-10 reverse split which brings the number back down somewhat).
However, the effect from the perspective of a current (partially inflation-protected) Steem Power holder will be more like 80 million. (That is assuming the 10% SP effective inflation holds up.)
Are you sure the numbers are incorrect? I went off Bytemaster's statement that if 99% of the STEEM remains locked away (protected from inflation), inflation would not go far above 10%.
And it is also true that when someone holds their steem as steempower when the % of steem locked away is under 90%, they receive even higher "protection" to the degree that they actually earn a sort of "interest"...which would mean that from the perspective of a current steempower holder, they would end up with more than the equivalent amount.
He meant that in terms of unprotected inflation for SP holders.
Yes
You should join our hangouts smooth!
And what do you mean by "unprotected inflation"? Do you mean that when almost all steem is tied up in sp, sp holders are diluted precisely because the market is considered too saturated and people need to be incentivized to keep some steem liquid?
Oh annd btw, you never answered the questions in the main post smooth ;)
Inquiring minds want to know.what your crystal ball says!
By "unprotected inflation" I mean the extent to which SP's share of the total supply is diluted by new supply. So if >90% is locked up the SP holders experience inflation with respect to their share of the total. If <90% is locked up, the SP gain what is effectively "interest" as you said earlier.
The maximum inflationary dilution that SP holders can experience (if >99% locked up) is about 10%.
All this talk of inflation distracts from the main point you made in your post which is that the total value can certainly increase dramatically. I don't really have an opinion on how likely that is. I will say that valuation of blockchain-based system is somewhat different from a centralized web-based system, even if the two do the same thing, since the latter derives largely from advertising (or in some cases direct revenue) and the former does not.
With intensive marketing campaign it could take only 2 years.
In crypto-space this can happen just overnight.
I have followed bitshares for a while, it had everything ripple had. The biggest problem was the marketing, there was never a worker proposal for a marketing campaign.
Well there "kind of" was, but it didn't seem like a great idea to have someone being paid to be a marketer for the chain just because of how difficult it proved to have a decentralized community and difficulty keeping track of any progress (or lack thereof). Mind you we are in a field that is known for its volatility---crypto.
Now with that said...how would you run an Intensive Marketing Campaign (I am allllll for going to 1Billion marketcap in 2 years :P)
To intense the things :-)
Well there are many of online marketing agencies . They know how to use a language that average Joe understands. You can't expect everyone to understand crypto.
i hope steem can reach $15/steem..Cheers
Another possibly-useful comp is medium.com at about $700 million.
Can you give a link? It is amazing how fast you guys congregated on this topic...lol.
I used your worthofweb.com and typed in medium.com
oh i see...it is a different website for which you looked at the valuation. I was thinking it was an alternative to worthofweb :)