We already know that facts and bankroll is for losers. So what's now? Well, after 3 lessons you have an idea HOW to bet, but now you know WHAT bets to choose. That is what we will learn today.

First, you need to determine the chances that your bet is a winning one. How to do it? Just trust your subjective unprofessional opinion and ignore facts (I will keep repeating this, because it is essential!). The rest will come with time.

So now you know the chances. How to act? I provide you my guidelines, which are masterfully crafted along the years. There is nothing missing here, but of course, you can improvise and adapt it. After all:

Only fools follow unconditionally… or the ones in love. But what’s the difference?

So, here we go:

0 percent chances

The best examples of 0 percent chance bets would be Donald Trump becoming a president, Leicester winning Premier’s league, or Brexit. In other words – things that never happen. So stay away from those bets, even though, the odds might be 1 to 5000. Not worth it.

10 percent chances

To put it in a perspective – it is like me trying to hook up with a hottest girl in town. In reality chances are zero, but because I am a believer and need some hope; I give it a chance of 10 percent.
So yeah, always bet on 10 percent chances. Just to prove the point of believing in things.

20 percent chances

20 percent sounds like a very small probability, but when I say that it will go through once on every five bets? If you bet at least on five events every day, it makes you a winner every day.

You understood it perfectly, 20 percent might be worth a shot time to time.

21-49 percent chances

This area is extremely risky. It determines that you give quite a good credit to your pick, but you understand that it will lose more often than win. It often leads to your brains saying not to bet, but your heart suggesting to try. What shall you do?
Roxette once said “Listen to your heart”. I think I made myself clear.

50 percent chances

It is a pure gambling. However, the bookies will most likely give you odds similar to 1.9, which means that you will end up as a loser in a long run, but…

1. You will have fun gambling
2. You might win money on short-term… Who cares about future when you have a rich present?

60 percent chances

It means you are thinking that you have picked the favorites, but you are not that completely sure. Well, if you cannot be that sure, never bet.

70 percent chances

If you think that someone will win 7 times of 10, you should bet, right? Think again. Betting is a dirty business and so many things are fixed beforehand. Yes, this business is like all those fake news and pizzagate, but 10 times more. What does it mean?
Bookies will want you to think that you to bet on those 70 percent picks, so that they could rig it and take your money. Don’t fall for it.

80 percent chances

Well, we already learned that you have to bet on 20 percent chances, because it makes you a winner. Logically, that means that you have to always bet opposite than that 80 percent pick. Thank me later!

81-99 percent chances

Anything what falls under this range is called “clear favorites”. You should probably consider betting on it, but always be very careful. Historically, Goliath was a favorite against David; Golden State Warriors was a favorite to win, while leading 3-1 against Cavs; Apollo Creed was a favorite against Rocky; and I could carry on with the list forever.
So, bet small and reasonable amounts on those favorites. That way you can only lose a little.

Writingamigo, but this range is probably the best if one considers having a profit, isn’t it?

Someone will ask me. I will only say to look below.

100 percent chances

A lot of people will tell you that 100 percent bets do not exist. They are liars and only want you to fail, because those bets are the real deal, which will make you rich.

What do you do with 100 percent bets? You bet all-in without thinking too much.

My personal experience shows that at least half of those 100 percent bets will actually win. I know that your mathematics teacher told you how “100 percent means that it can never be otherwise”, but betting is a whole different universe.

If it is getting confusing, so just remember this:

Place all-in on those 100 percent bets. You will sometimes lose all your savings, but in a long run, you will come to me thanking for this great advice. And even when one of your 100 percent bets loses, never doubt the system and be sure to place your bets again and again.

If you lose all your money, you can always borrow money from banks or family. Classics.

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*** All the gifs are taken from giphy.com ***

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