The 100 Bets Update: +12.28% Yield
For this month I plan to test my prediction model (The Reverend) on at least 500 games and for the May I plan to test it on 500 more. My goal is to have at least 1000 bets sample size by the end of this year's seasons.
I've just completed 10% of my goal and here are the numbers:
| Bets | Won | Lost | Postp | Pending | Return | Profit | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 109 | 44 | 52 | 9 | 4 | 117.90 | +12.9 | +12.28% |
So far, I like what I'm seeing, but it is too early to declare the victory yet. If the profitability holds up at 1000 bets mark, I'll do it then with an appropriate meme. Here's a little sneak peek :-)
And if the model proves unprofitable, I'll hang my head in shame and wish to have never created that distastefull gif :-)
Nice start, this kind of system try-out tracking seems like a good way to use Steemit for.
I've tried many of these systems in the past myself but the only ones that were able to beat the market on a bigger sample all focussed on exploiting high odds 1x2 books gave compared to the asian bookmakers. This made them impossible to actually use with decent stakes.
I'm tracking it also by placing micro stakes (~0.5eur) per bet with my online bookie, but, as you say, the steemit is a great choice for this. It's transparent and public. Anyone can verify it.
Regarding the odds, I try to use the industry average... I'm not yet sure what would be the right solution for it because of the most bettors play on what you'd call recreational books. Perhaps, using the odds from Pinnacle would be the best compromise?
I'm busy these days, but once I free up some time I'll test the model on the different markets (Over/Under and AH). Also, I'm planning at least two additional models to be ready for the next seasons.
So little time and so much to do...
pinnacle is probably the best choice, if you are able to beat them with your system the sky is the limit as is should be possible to use bigger stakes.
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