ViaBTC | BTC Hashrate Down by 26% in 30 Days: When Will the Crypto Bear End?

After the BTC hashrate hit a record high of 266.41EH/s on June 8, people thought that the vitality injected by miners, who run the crypto upstream, could save cryptocurrency from the prolonged slump and lead to market recovery. Yet, as central banks around the world raised interest rates to combat the soaring inflation, financial markets in many countries suffered panic-driven dumping. Affected by such external forces and macro policies, crypto finance has struggled to stay intact.

Data from CoinGecko shows that the total market cap of cryptocurrency has fallen below $1 trillion, a loss of nearly $2 trillion from its peak in November last year. In particular, the price of Bitcoin, as called “digital gold”, has plunged by over 70% from its peak in November 2021 and is now quoted at $19,721. Meanwhile, other cryptocurrencies such as ETH, BNB, and ADA have all dropped by more than 60% since last year.

The continued price decline has also slashed the profit margins of crypto miners. Meanwhile, a growing number of medium-level mining rigs are approaching the shutdown price. Data from ViaBTC shows that assuming electricity costs $0.06 per kWh, according to the current BTC price, mining rigs such as Antminer S15, Whatsminer M21S, and other models have fallen below the shutdown price. From June 8 to July 11, the BTC hashrate had dropped by 26%.

On the one hand, miners have to pay for the normal expenses of running mining rigs; on the other hand, they are uncertain about the market trend in the second half of 2022. As such, BTC miners are no longer holding all their coins. According to Glassnode, the reserve balance of BTC miners has fallen to 1,819,038 BTC, a 7-month low. This is also the bottom point this year, which means that miners have been selling their BTC holdings.

When will the crypto bear end?
The MLIV Pulse Survey, which included 950 investors, shows that 60% of the respondents believe that the BTC price is more likely to fall to $10,000 sooner than it climbs to $30,000, and only 40% of the respondents felt differently. In terms of the external factors, many Fed officials have released “hawkish” signals. According to the latest news from CME’s Federal Reserve Watch, the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 75 basis points in July is 90.6%.

We can tell that most investors are pessimistic about the market prospect of cryptocurrency. Signals such as miners selling their cryptos and the Fed hiking interest rates indicate that cryptos that are closely correlated with the U.S. stocks, especially the NASDAQ index, may suffer further price drops.

However, according to the historical patterns recorded during past bear-bull cycles, “miners’ surrender” is a typical sign of a bottom. For example, Bitcoin bottomed out in 2018 when it fell below a key mining cost indicator. The price hit bottom again in late 2019 when Bitcoin plunged below the indicator. In March 2020, Bitcoin hit the mining cost for the third time and then began to rebound. Moreover, the price even reached its historical peak in 2021.

Mike McGlone, a senior commodity strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence, tweeted that the BTC price may rebound this year as the market shows signs similar to the 2018 bottom. According to Yassine Elmandjra, a crypto analyst at ARK Investment Management, Bitcoin has traded below its 200 WMA and short-and long-term cost bases for only the fourth time in price history, levels that have historically marked generational bottoms.

Looking at financial markets worldwide, we notice that bears are generally shorter than bulls. According to a recent report from CNBC, the average length of a bear market is 289 days; bull markets, on the other hand, average 991 days. Therefore, even if Bitcoin is going through the toughest period ever, Bitcoin has survived tenaciously every time, as evidenced by its past performance. We are thus confident that it will stick through the current bear market as well. Therefore, crypto investors don’t have to get overwrought as they face the present market sluggishness.