Artificial Intelligence (AI) is the elephant in the room
Forecasts are all over the place for what is going to happen to jobs over the next couple decades. Some people believe there will be more jobs a decade from now while others are predicting 90% job loss by 2040. So how is all this going to unfold?
Obviously that is impossible to know. One thing to focus upon is the state of artificial intelligence to see where things are going.
Ben Goertzel is one of the leading AI minds in the world. He started Singularitynet and OpenCog. He is not only one of the foremost authorities on AI, he is also one of the most aggressive in his forecasts.
When discussing artificial intelligence, there are many categories to it. One way that we can break it down is by looking at ASI (or ANI) and AGI.
ASI is artificial specialized intelligence. This is where we are today. Algorithms are getting very advanced in their abilities yet they are narrow in focus. The automatic braking system on your car is an example. It was designed to over ride the manual system when there is a chance of running into something. For this purpose, it is excellent. However, the same algorithm cannot pick a stock for you or help decide what is the best place to eat.
AGI stands for artificial general intelligence. Here we arrive at a point where computers become smarter than humans. Suddenly, we loose our place at the top of the intelligence totem pole.
Goertzel spends his days working on AGI. All the companies he is involved in are focused around the creation of this technology. He is one who can really provide an inside view.
In an article posted over the weekend, this was a time line that he laid out.
In a talk I gave recently at Josef Urban’s AI4REASON lab in Prague (where my son Zar is doing his PhD, by the way) I outlined “Four Simple Steps to Human-Level AGI.” The title was intended as dry humor, as actually none of the steps are simple at all. But I do believe they are achievable within our lifetime, maybe even in the next 5-10 years. Better yet, each of the four steps is currently being worked on by multiple teams of brilliant people around the world, including but by no means limited to my own teams at SingularityNET, Hanson Robotics, and OpenCog.
The emphasis was placed by us.
This is a very concerning statement from an employment standpoint. If AGI is reached in the next decade, job loss will be much greater than anyone expected. Even if that is not reached but we see progress where it is 1/2 or 3/4 of the way there, that will have major implications.
In the past, humans were always needed because of their mental abilities. We turned much of our physical labor over to machines. The last 30 years of automation saw this occur. All during that time, people were able to move into positions where they used their minds.
Suddenly, because of AI, humans mental abilities are facing replacement. When computers become smarter than we are, most jobs will be destroyed. AGI will get rid of the need for CFOs, COOs, and probably CEOs. Many of the challenges that are faced today automating particular jobs will not be an issue for this intelligence. All of a sudden, the explosion of innovation will overwhelm the job situation.
Even without AGI, the pace of ASI is a factor that needs consideration. We might not see AGI by 2030 yet it is likely that ASI will be exponentially more advanced than today. Couple this with rapid advancement in computing power and it is easy to conclude that things are not going to be the same.
Using a 10 year window, the world does not have a lot of time to adjust. We are very clear in our belief that the political establishment will only be reactionary on this issue. Corporations are not about to step in to help solve the problem since it is in their best interest to automate out the jobs they can. This leaves few options when looking at the potential carnage from AI.
The media likes to talk about robotics and if they are going to take jobs. What is overlooked is that the giant elephant in the room are algorithms. These take a lot less time to create while going after the jobs of greater impact. It is far easier to create and update software than it is to develop a robot.
This all might be way off base but it makes little sense to us to argue with one of the leading AI minds in the world. If Ben Goertzel believes that AGI is possible within 10 years, the world ought to listen to him. He is one of the people in the pits each day working on creating this reality.
Sadly, for the employment situation, the world might wake up only after it is too late.
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I certainly began seeing AI bots that are supposed to be able to watch on screen mouse clicks and typed entries, and based on context after a short training period take over 80-90% of manual tasks. You still need a couple of humans to deal with the exceptions, but most human operatives can be 're-purposed'.
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