The Bankera Outlook

Introduction

Bankera is a building a digital bank aimed at the field of cryptocurrency . Bankera is tied to the SpectroCoin platform which is already up and running. SpectroCoin positions itself as an all-in-one solution for Bitcoin. In order to expand it reach, the people of SpectroCoin initiated the Bankera initiative with the aim of building a real bank next to SpectroCoin. For now, the Bankera initiative is still closely tied to the SpectroCoin platform.

Among the traditional bank activities that Bankera aims to render, are:

• payment processor with accounts (both regular fiat currency and various cryptocurrencies
• loans and deposits (with deposits receiving interest
• investment products

Bankera website: https://bankera.com/
Read more here: https://steemit.com/jerry/@bensasy/bankera

Pre-ICO ended - ICO in October 2017

In the pre-ICO, 2.5 bln tokens were issued at EUR 0.01 each. So EUR 2.5 million was raised which amount is used as initial capital for Bankera's bank activities. This was the maximum made available for the pre-ICO so this can be considered a success. The pre-ICO has been effected via the SpectroCoin platform, meaning that the Bankera Tokens (BNK) issued in the pre-ICO, are still non-tradable and held on the Spectrocoin webstie.

During the ICO, another 7.5bln tokens will be issued with a minimum price of EUR 0.017 each. In the end, the BNK tokens will be made available as ERC20 tokens on the Ethereum or XEM network.

So in the first years of Bankera, a maximum of 10 bln tokens will be issued.

It is paying dividends.... now...

Holders of BNK tokens will receive dividend in the form of part of the revenue stream, to be paid weekly. The divided consists of 20% of Bankera and SpectroCoin net transaction revenue. The payments are structured as payments on the BNK tokens.

The BNK tokens (currently administratively booked at SpectroCoin, but later on as ERC20 tokens) issued in the pre-ICO already pay this dividend. There were 3 weekly payouts already. Calculated annually, the dividend is about 2.5 to 3% over the nominal issue price.

The Outlook

My working assumption is that there will be 10 bln BNK tokens in the foreseeable future. The issue of these tokens will then have raised EUR 25,000,000 (pre-ICO) + EUR 127,500,000 (ICO) = EUR 152,500,000. A decent amount to make first steps as an (online) bank with regular banking activities.

The valuation of the BNK token is closely aligned with the dividend income. Let's assume the pessimistic scenario that the current dividend income remains stable without any increases for the foreseeable moment. I will disregard the fact that capital was raised does not immediately increase revenue and assume that the yield on the capital paid on BNK tokens be some 3% from the start.

Let's assume now that an investor wants a yield of at least 7% over a BNK token. In other words, an investor is willing to collect dividend for 14,2 years before his initial investment has been fully recouped out of dividend income (not considering inflation). This leads to the following 'valuation' of BNK tokens when looking at the revenue growth scenarios.

Price projection vs revenue growth scenarios:

• base revenue (current situation) - price of a BNK token = EUR 0.004
• 10x revenue growth - price of a BNK token = EUR 0.04
• 40x revenue growth - price of a BNK token = EUR 0.17
• 100x revenue growth - price of a BNK token = EUR 0.42

My Take

Looking at these numbers, I think that the 40-100x revenue growth are still way off. Bankera needs to take quite a few steps, both regulatory (e.g., obtain banking license) and commercially (grow grow grow) before reaching those kinds of growth numbers. So in the next 2 years, the base projection is somewhere between 1x to 10x revenue growth with anything above it as stellar performance. While in the scenario 1x, I expect nobody to sell his BNK tokens because a steady 3% yield is a fine investment in this low interest rate time.

So the BNK token price floor is EUR 0.01 with fundamental price based on actual revenue growth. Anything exceeding this, is the speculative part of the price.

The above projects leads me to the following price projection:

• base level: between EUR 0.01 - EUR 0.06 (little speculation)
• exuberance: between EUR 0.06 - EUR 0.20 (lots of speculation)
• ludicrous: EUR 0.20 and beyond (2013-style hype)

Conclusion

The BNK token seems to have a good future ahead of it. If the tokens will continue to yield about 3% annually from the start, the only way is up. Even with moderate growth scenario's, the price increase factor from the pre-ICO could run into a factor beyond 10x if heavy speculation kicks in. But the first year will probably be quite dull leaving this coin for the HODLers among us.