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RE: FOUR CORNERS: Betting on the House

in #australia7 years ago (edited)

I'm curious to know your thoughts guys but it seems to me that property is only going to go up in Australia.

Being Steemit users I imagine the majority of you are aware that there seems to be a big risk if currency devaluation - that's based on current monetary policy around the world.

Assets, stocks, bonds, proper and even crypto are all going up because there is too much credit pouring into the global economy.

When it comes to housing jt's no longer relevant what the average Joe thinks is affordable. House prices will keep going up.

Houses are not very liquid assets, meaning that when shit hits the fan global money is likely to stay put in the housing sector, rather than fleeing overnight like in other markets.

When that happens the banks will have the bigger problem of liquidity...not homeowners.

Homeowners only have to worry when and if their cash flow forces them to sell. If this happens at a time when buyer demand is weak it can cause a lower sale price and potential loss.

However, I find it very difficult to see how the markets could fall 50% or more to wipe out potential gains from the majority of home owners.

Also investors in theory (unless stupidly negatively geared) shouldnt feel the pinch too bad. A large number of rents will continuing to flow in and give them cash flow irrespective of the economy. (I'm assuming properties owned are in the city or suburbs and not in mining towns etc. ) Plus if investing properly they should have insurance policies and cash buffers to weather out a rough patch.

If home owners and investors hold their property then there is no loss.

The only reason they would need to sell is if minterest rates go up significantly..... and let's face it they are not going anywhere.

Most of us now that this recovery is fake and crash 2.0 is coming. Interest rates are at record lows....they will only go lower. Meaning house prices will only go higher.

In an uncertain economy there are two things that are certain.... People still have to eat and people still have to live somewhere.

It sounds like Chinese money knows this and put there money behind this idea.

Yes prices are high. Yes it seems in fair. But no amount of wining or crying is going to fix this for you.

The way I see it you have two options. Take the bull by the horns and get into something affordable now. Or bite the bullet down the l in me when it is even less affordable.

The government is not going to fix the affordability problem. They are betting on high house prices carry support retirees and ease the government's own pension burden and to boost the economy... Because let's face it without housing right now it's pretty much flat lining.

Also I found this news piece to be very one sided. Getting credit these days is actually incredibly hard compared to several years ago.

Investors are assessed at hypothetical rates several points higher than actual rates. They generally have to have a 20% deposit and it's hard to get away with paying interest only anymore.

It was a different story during the mining boom days where 100% loans were possible.

The fact is there is just too much money flowing into all asset markets.

Meanwhile deflationary pressures from global trade and competition are pushing down corporate earnings and wages for us average plebs. Another incentive for businesses and wage earners to continue buying up rent generating assets.

Anyway rant over. I'm keen to hear your thoughts :) 👂

As an interesting afterthought my parents witnessed hyperinflation in poland in the 90s. They were able to pay off their home almost immediately after it was built just by selling some left over roofing tiles. Wouldn't that be nice haha. But it was pretty Terrible for those who only had savings and no assets

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Hi Joanna - great reply and great points. Really - this deserves it own post.

IMO

The scenario you outline - straight to hyper-inflation is a possibility. However, I expect that we would see deflation first - crash in price as defaults begin - then panic selling driving prices lower.

I don't believe that we have the same currency printing issue that the US has - so doubt we will experience the same level of hyper inflation if at all. Opposite in fact - Aussie dollar could actually go up substantially in value adding to the deflation.

Of course - many here who believe that property market is inflated are also holding gold and silver because we believe these are cheap - so in the hyperinflation world you describe - we will be just fine anyway.

Suggest you re-post your reply to #teamaustralia and #steemsilvergold - you are sure to get plenty of great answers.

Following.

SirKnight.

Thanks SirKnight. I'll work on a post and have it up soon :)

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