Central Asia is coming into its own
outset of 2022, Kazakhstan was shaken by a wave of social unrest. Innocuous at first, it rapidly escalated from anger over fuel price hikes to broader political discontent. At the invitation of President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, Russia sent troops to help restore order. The operation was successful. After less than two weeks, foreign troops were withdrawn, and all seemed content with the outcome.
At the outset of 2023, the stage had been completely transformed. Because of its brutal war against Ukraine, Russia has witnessed former friends and allies distancing themselves from the Kremlin. The significance of this trend was especially pronounced in Kazakhstan.
The importance of Kazakhstan
Ever since the 1991 breakup of the Soviet Union, the Central Asian nation of 19 million people had been the Kremlin’s most trusted friend and ally. That is no longer the case. President Tokayev has made it clear that while he will not join Western sanctions against Russia, he has no intention of supporting any form of the Russian annexation of any Ukrainian territory. His attitude toward the Kremlin has broad support among Kazakhs.
Russian President Vladimir Putin made five trips to Central Asia in 2022, seeking to shore up the role of Russia as a regional hegemon. But his travels have mainly illustrated just how fragile that position has become. At a Caspian Summit meeting in Turkmenistan in early July, he was humiliated as the only foreign dignitary not to be received at the airport with the customary greeting of bread and salt. And photo ops have shown other leaders reluctant to stand next to him.
Leadership in Central Asia
The implication is that no foreign nation has a dominant leadership role in Central Asia, home to 72 million people among the five ex-Soviet republics. The main questions are whether Russia will claw back its position as the leading security provider and whether China will emerge from its current Covid-19 mess as the most important economic player in the region. The alternative options are that Central Asian governments will find new external patrons or finally rise to the challenge of becoming masters in their own houses.
Russia is currently failing, primarily as a provider of security, but also as a leader in economic integration. The armed intervention in Kazakhstan was conducted under the aegis of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) created in May 1992. Patterned on NATO, it was designed to ensure that Russia would remain the leading power in post-Soviet space, much as the United States dominates NATO.
At its peak, the CSTO included nine of the 15 former Soviet republics. Following the departures of Azerbaijan, Georgia and Uzbekistan, only six remain. One is Armenia, which has long been on the Russian side, with a significant Russian military base on its territory. When it was attacked by Azerbaijan in the fall of 2020, Armenia sought support from the CSTO, but that appeal was denied. Armenian forces were routed from Nagorno-Karabakh.
Central Asia is becoming an open area for the emerging energy and security axis between Turkey and Azerbaijan.
Two others are Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. Aside from their marginal importance, they also have severe bilateral disagreements. Last September saw an eruption of border clashes that left close to 100 dead and many wounded. The government in Kyrgyzstan called the crisis an attempted invasion by Tajikistan.
That leaves Russia with Belarus and Kazakhstan as its only reliable allies. If it is defeated in Ukraine, Moscow may face a collapse of the regime in Minsk, meaning that the CSTO will effectively be reduced to an alliance between Russia and Kazakhstan. This scenario makes the cold shoulder from President Tokayev so important.
In a bizarre connection with Russian military failures in Ukraine, the rhetoric against Kazakhstan has also become increasingly aggressive. Comparisons between the Russian-speaking Donbas in Ukraine and the Russian-populated north of Kazakhstan have long been made. But Russian warlords have escalated to open threats of an armed invasion. In response, Kazakhstan has moved its troops to the Russian border.
