RE: Preventing Human Extinction Disasters: Antifragility and Externalities in Politics
I need to read Peter Thiel,...while in Iraq I attempted to use Palantir technologies but could not as there was no US gov't contract at the time. Externalities are greatly overlooked,...consider that the Congressional outlook is hardly mentioned. I posit that it will likely remain in Republican hands and will thus greatly mute a non Trump President...In fact I believe a Clinton Presidency against a solid Republican House and Senate will be the most stable, or anti-fragile. Risk management/mitigation is futile without the proper identification and analysis of said risks. My understanding is that black swans can't be identified thus can only be hedged against in a general way. I believe Taleb runs his portfolio in such a manner. A high percentage of assets in "stable" risk free assets, and a small portion in inexpensive way out of the money long dated options. The question here is the actual risk free stability of those government securities. DJT talking about not honoring our government debts was ground shaking. I have a theory on that though. As for the environmental science of climate change and GMO's, I honestly don't know what to think because they are both so politically poisoned. I've read countless papers on each with subsequent support and refutations. Its simply frustrating that I'm unable to reach a solid conclusion. I believe like Y2K the closer to an outcome looking like a true risk the harder we work to mitigate that risk, thus Y2K was a nonevent. However there is no doubt humans, singularly and collectively are error prone and can quite easily miss a catastrophic tipping point. I'm middle aged with no children, pardon my selfish cruelty but like having no health insurance in my youth there are some risks I accept. The DJT and HRC analysis by Adams and others is agreeable but I do think they should be the only considerations even though Johnson, Stein can influence the election neither will be President. Entrenched interests that do not change are the more influential forces. Like Ike I warn of the the Financial industrial complex, the military industrial complex and the health care industrial complex. In that order because money sits at the top of all those power structures. So I conclude that many who say the same things are intrigued by the prospects of Trump as a disruptor but I would suggest there is nothing as antifragile as our leviathan state currently. Its the sand pile that continues to grow grain after grain but seemingly as stable as ever even though logic says this can't continue. So show me the math and I will believe but in the end its all conjecture, the future remains forever unknown.
Awesome critique! Great to see insightful responses. I will have to read and think a bit more before I back to you with a more detailed response.