9/25 ANDY HOFFMAN (CryptoGoldCentral.com): My “Bitcoin Mantra”

in #andyhoffman6 years ago (edited)

At 48, I am one of the “oldest people in Bitcoin” – whether you’re referring to my status as a commentator, consultant, or “all-in investor.” Which is quite funny, as if I were still in Precious Metals, it would be my 16th year in the sector - but I’d STILL be one of the youngest. Which should tell you all you need to know about the demographic makeup of Stone Age goldbugs, and Digital Age Millennials and Gen Zs.

I’d say I’m “too old for this” – but staying young, and chasing passions (particularly, financial ones) has defined me from the time I first started investing in the late 1990s in internet stocks; followed by nearly a decade in junior mining stocks – which back then, acted a lot like today’s altcoins.

In 2011, I decided the volatility was too much to take, given my age and changing risk profile. This is when I “moved up the totem pole” from mining stocks to bullion – which I held as my principal financial asset until I started acquiring Bitcoin in January 2016. By the middle of 2017, I realized silver was dead – and just as I left the Precious Metals sector, sold all of it for Bitcoin. Subsequently, I completed the transformation entirely in early 2018, when I sold all my gold for Bitcoin, too. I saw these moves as yet again, “moving up the totem pole” of monetary quality, even as my portfolio’s volatility once again soared. Thankfully, I’ve avoided altcoins – but irrespective, it’s incredible to believe that after all I’ve been through, my net worth now swings more on a daily basis than ever before. That said, thanks to Bitcoin, I’m better off than ever before - even if the “fear factor” of living with it is quite literally, off the charts.

Yes, I’ve been deeply invested in Bitcoin since January 2016. Thus, for nearly three years, I’ve dealt with dozens, if not hundreds, of crushing price declines – to the point that it’s become an expected, yet incredibly stressful part of life. However, as they say, “no pain, no gain” – so despite the stress, it’s been worth it, given the rise in my net worth - as opposed to falling throughout the final six years of my Precious Metal existence.

In 2016, there was still much to fear in Bitcoin – as we had not yet endured the scaling debate, hacks were a significant risk, and offline hardware wallets were not yet mainstream. However, BTC’s market cap was very low, so the downside was limited – even if it felt equally scary when, for example, the price fell from $430 to $380. In 2017, the volatility and “scariness” of Bitcoin investing exploded – as aside from the larger dollar declines, serious issues were being dealt with, that less then a year ago still left its future in doubt.

To wit, living through the scaling debate, fully invested, was one of the scariest things I’ve ever endured. To wit, in March 2017, mere days after a major Bitcoin plunge when the Winklevoss ETF was first denied, Roger Ver and Jihan Wu started an anti-Bitcoin campaign that lasted nearly a year. Heck, it was just as scary AFTER SegWit locked in – thus, guaranteeing Bitcoin’s immutability; as after BCash forked off on August 1st, the Bitcoin attacks INCREASED.

Which brings us to 2018 – which started with a major BCash attack whilst Bitcoin was ALREADY declining due to selling by the Mt Gox Trustee; followed by a vicious price decline that took Bitcoin’s market cap from $335 billion December 17th to $100 billion February 6th (i.e., the “Hoffman Line”). Since then, price volatility has been off the charts – with Bitcoin “consolidating” above $100 billion amidst countless false breakouts, whilst the altcoin bear market has continued unabated. The “Bitcoin Roller Coaster” has truly been breathless – however, unlike 2016 and 2017 (let alone, prior years), there’s no actual “bad news” to fear…but instead, the typical machinations of a bear market environment – from FUD, to propaganda and manipulative price suppression by Bitcoin “traders.” Hence, my long-standing description of Bitcoin 2018…the “bear market with no bad news.”

Sure, the Mt Gox Trustee’s sales were “bad”; as have been Bitmain’s relentless BTC liquidations – and recently, those of a Mt Gox “whale” whose wallet was unfrozen after four years. However, these are decidedly non-fundamental issues, that have no bearing on Bitcoin’s future outlook. Likewise, SEC ETF hype has contributed greatly to price volatility – but matters not in the big picture, as Bitcoin ETFs WILL happen; it’s only a matter of WHEN, and WHERE.

Sure, India’s “crypto banking ban” has been an issue (final arguments in Indian court are being held today) – but how much impact has it really had, given how small the Indian BTC market was to start with? And yes, a Bitcoin “bug” was discovered last week – but it was promptly fixed, and the BTC price didn’t even budge when it was revealed…which is why, per yesterday’s article, even “bad news” doesn’t matter anymore, as Bitcoin is long past its “point of no return.”

https://steemit.com/andyhoffman/@andyhoffman/9-24-andy-hoffman-cryptogoldcentral-com-catastrophic-bug-reaction-highlights-bitcoin-s-growing-anti-fragility

In early September, we may well have seen the bottom of the altcoin market – when prices violently plunged, led by bellwethers Ethereum and BCash…both of which, are experiencing significant internal “issues.” However, Bitcoin didn’t even come close to breaking the Hoffman Line then; and this week’s altcoin plunge (Ethereum fell nearly 20% in less than 48 hours), if it indeed is over; didn’t even come close to the early September lows.

Can it get worse? Of course. But given Bitcoin’s rock-solid fundamentals, in a world where those of fiat currency and Precious Metals are getting progressively worse, it’s difficult to conceive what could possibly get Bitcoin to break the Hoffman Line - erasing years of progress at a time when its needed most; whilst its valuation, at a mere $110 billion, remains “chump change” in the context of a $200+ trillion legacy financial world. To that end, I’ll continue to fight through the stress, relentlessly repeating the “Bitcoin Mantra” that has gotten me this far; i.e., “during major declines, don’t look for bad news…because you won’t find any!”

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Wow, Andy... I did not know until now that you were all in on BTC. I'm hoping this is for "venture capital investing" and that you still have your "Stacks of Phyzzz" for your personal holdings. That's pretty much where I am right now.

As far as "Bad News"...

yes, the crypto markets don't really need bad news to get a negative price action. Cryptos are obviously easier to Manipulate than Gold or even Silver. I knew we were in for a rough ride once they got BTC and ETH on the "Futures Markets" in fact that is the first thing I said about it.

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