9/21 ANDY HOFFMAN (CryptoGoldCentral.com): Did the SEC News Cause the Crypto Surge?
When Bitcoin was driven down to a $100 billion market cap on February 6th - care of an 8,000 BTC dump by the Mt Gox Trustee; I first discussed my view that the “Hoffman Line” would prove to be major support – given how powerful Bitcoin’s fundamentals, and the fact that the “institutional genie” was officially out of its bottle.
https://twitter.com/Andy_Hoffman_CG/status/1039889241805746176
Meanwhile, momentum-chasing “TA gurus” – the same ones who at $20,000, were predicting $25,000 - started talking about an imminent price collapse…no one more so than the “Pied Piper of Crypto,” KING TA FUDster; i.e., the DEADCAT JACKASS. Like any good charlatan, he hedges his “calls” by claiming to be a “long-term bull” – in this case, doubling down his 80%-fooling double-speak by claiming he would “never short Bitcoin”…even though YOU should listen to his ADVICE to do so, and PAY him for it.
Since then, Bitcoin has endured 7½ months of relentless price pressure and FUD…yielding shriller calls from “gurus” for a price crash that somehow, never seems to happen. In fact, the “Hoffman Line” has held nearly a dozen times since – including September 8th, 11th, and 19th, when the market cap never even got below $105 billion. This, as altcoins were violently plunging – like Ethereum, which fell as low as $165.
https://twitter.com/Andy_Hoffman_CG/status/1043094846716633088
Conversely, I have relentlessly maintained the Bitcoin bear market ended February 6th – and since, has simply been in a well-deserved consolidation period…during which, its fundamentals have grown inexorably stronger, as exemplified by today’s record hash rate and network security…and now, nearly a year of trading above a $100 billion market cap, as we approach the 10-year anniversary of Bitcoin trading, and inch closer to the May 2020 halving.
That said, altcoins have continued to weaken, and “traders” have continued to attack the Hoffman Line – using every manner of FUD to support the bearish trading environment…like for instance, the nonsense that Bitcoin “needs” an ETF, and that the price will collapse if it doesn’t get one soon.
All summer, I said the odds of ETF approval this year were very low – but MUST inevitably occur given the GLOBAL upswelling of institutional demand. Thus, it was no surprise when the SEC delayed its decision on the SolidX/Van Eck Bitcoin ETF decision (the only ETF given a reasonable chance of approval, given its CBOE backing) from August 10th to September 30th - which, given the aforementioned sector bearishness, caused Bitcoin to plunge to…yep, the Hoffman Line.
Since then, it has consolidated further in the low $6,000s – with a very strong resistance level at $6,500, that I have repeatedly discussed for the past two months, including last week, and last night.
https://twitter.com/Andy_Hoffman_CG/status/1042907656460021760
To that end, as we approached the September 30th SEC deadline – which can be extended to February 27th – I said there was a 20% chance of approval, 30% of denial, and 50% of deferral to February. Which, given the heightened bearishness demonstrated by the subsequent price plunges, I amended – YESTERDAY – to say NO ONE actually believed the ETF would be approved September 30th…
https://twitter.com/Andy_Hoffman_CG/status/1042834510029586432
…for the following reasons…
https://twitter.com/Andy_Hoffman_CG/status/1042856766051049472
VOILA! Mere hours after these Tweets, the SEC deferred the decision. However, in what has been interpreted as a wildly bullish development, they did NOT delay until February 27th, but December 29th. In other words, demonstrating a sense of urgency to finalize the decision this year – which in the eyes of the investment community, suggests they aim to approve it.
https://twitter.com/Andy_Hoffman_CG/status/1042906107839053825
…which in turn, would also smooth the planned BAKKT crypto exchange launch in November, by the owners of the New York Stock Exchange.
http://fortune.com/longform/nyse-owner-bitcoin-exchange-startup/
Yes, the SEC’s surprising announcement served as a catalyst of the subsequent price surge – which, I might add, was far more powerful in altcoins than Bitcoin itself, as evidenced by the overnight BTC “dominance” plunge from 55% to below 53%. However, I think the news was, as much as its content, an “excuse” to relieve a heavily oversold condition, in the sector fated to dominate the investment landscape for years to come.
Frankly, it matters not WHY – only that you were prepared for it, with the most conservative; and likely, profitable; investment strategy ever; i.e, HODLing Bitcoin!