8/03 ANDY HOFFMAN (CryptoGoldCentral.com): Is Next Week’s SEC ETF Decision the Cause of Recent Bitcoin Volatility?
First off, consider how much effort I put into my Twitter feed – which today alone, contains numerous, myriad postings on topics vitally important to Bitcoin…that in most cases, few if any others are covering. Second, PLEASE take the time to listen to yesterday’s “One-on-One” with Trace Mayer – whose cryptocurrency knowledge and experience is in league with other luminaries like Simon Dixon and Charlie Lee. So many vitally important, eminently bullish comments came of it, I cannot list them all…other than the one that stuck out most, that “each day, Bitcoin inspires more confidence in the global investment community.”
Regarding today’s topic, no one knows for sure if the upcoming SEC ETF decision is the primary reason for Bitcoin’s recent volatility – but unquestionably, the topic is front-and-center in investors’ minds; at least, regarding the short-term path of Bitcoin’s price – and cryptocurrency in general. The reason being, that if the SEC decides “no” on August 10th - a date they may well extend 45 days; it’s uncertain how much longer the crypto bear market will continue – particularly in altcoins, which are rapidly losing crypto “dominance.” Let’s face it, investors are losing confidence in cryptos with NO USE CASE - particularly the PONZI SCHEME known as BCash…which in my view, is destined to eventually break its all-time low of roughly 5% of Bitcoin.
https://twitter.com/Andy_Hoffman_CG/status/1025156132841512960
https://twitter.com/Andy_Hoffman_CG/status/1025367418351144960
Conversely, an SEC “yes” would likely end ALL downward pressure on Bitcoin; and perhaps, re-invigorate altcoin dominance, too - as speculative juices, and “animal spirits,” would undoubtedly return. Frankly, I’d be shocked if $20,000 isn’t recaptured within six months if the SolidX/Van Eck Bitcoin ETF is approved.
https://cryptogoldcentral.com/2018/07/11/will-a-bitcoin-etf-be-approved-august-10th/
Hence, the hypothesis that Bitcoin’s wild volatility this summer – even given the “Bitcoin Roller Coaster’s” normal day-to-day lunacy – is directly due to ETF speculation.
https://twitter.com/Andy_Hoffman_CG/status/1025216447750889472
Which, given the fact that there is no other bad news to explain Bitcoin’s recent plunge, is the most logical explanation I can come up with – particularly given Bitcoin’s unregulated nature. Thus, making it possible, even for REGULATORS, to spread and/or act on rumors, without penalty. Also, the fact that so many institutions are piling into the sector – some, believing the bear market is over; some, believing not; and others, that the SEC’s decision will be the deciding factor.
https://twitter.com/Andy_Hoffman_CG/status/1024314584587354113
Yes, it seems silly – given that Bitcoin’s extremely tiny valuation, at $125 billion – does not even slightly discount the impact an ETF would have on its price (see my $20,000 comment above); or, for that matter, that after the Winklevoss Bitcoin ETF application was first denied in March 2017, the price promptly rose from $950 to $20,000 in the next nine months – with not a shred of hope that an ETF was on the table anytime soon.
https://twitter.com/Andy_Hoffman_CG/status/1025342238610472960
That said, Bitcoin is already one of the world’s most volatile assets – given its ultra-thin float, and wildly differing views on its long-term outlook…at least, for the 90%+ of society that don’t understand its INEVITABLE, explosive growth.
In the big picture, unless the SEC commissioners have been releasing inside information to “friends,” there’s NO WAY of knowing what they will rule August 10th – or, for that matter, if they’ll even rule August 10th at all. Thus, it’s very likely that indeed, Bitcoin’s recent volatility has a LOT to do with next week’s ETF decision – which in my view, after the past week’s $1,200 price decline, has ALREADY been largely discounted as a “no.”
https://twitter.com/Andy_Hoffman_CG/status/1025339847500677121
Then again, if this morning’s breaking news – that a MORON trader may have been MASSIVELY margin-called following a horrifically losing Bitcoin trade – it may well be that the downside portion of said “volatility” was for no other reason. To which I can only say, draw your own conclusions, as best you can – and HODL Bitcoin!
https://twitter.com/Andy_Hoffman_CG/status/1025389552779780096