5/20 ANDY HOFFMAN (CryptoGoldCentral.com): MUCH Higher Mt Gox Trustee Lows? If So, VERY Bitcoin Bullish!
King TA FUDster continues to seek every opportunity to scare old and new Bitcoin holders alike; whilst simultaneously, proving that either TA is clueless…or perhaps, his methods. Case in point, this video – as usual, timed perfectly to maximize FUD - of how the breach of $8,000 meant $7,600 was “next.” And What do you know? The price bottomed at $7,930, stayed there for a few minutes, and rose to $8,400 less than a day later.
https://twitter.com/ToneVays/status/997495441565601794
Conversely, I’ve relentlessly discussed the FUNDAMENTALS of Bitcoin’s historically cheap valuation – as measured by the Mayer Multiple; and the most important factor affecting the cryptocurrency market today - which amazingly, no one else even mentions. Which is, the increasingly obvious fact that the Mt Gox Trustee is the PRIMARY reason the Bitcoin price declined from $10,000 to $8,000; and why, per the half dozen tweets I have followed up with, it couldn’t be more obvious that HE is “camped out” at $8,400, selling the remainder of the 24,000 coins he withdrew from his cold wallets April 25th and May 10th.
The reason I bring this up, is to dispel the FUD that “something is wrong” – as in reality, the price of Bitcoin is being artificially suppressed (and all cryptos, given the 100% directional correlation of their prices) by a decidedly NON-FUNDAMENTAL factor that with each passing day, gets significantly closer to ending.
If the Mt Gox Trustee is close to completing the sale of these 24,000 Bitcoins – which given the amount of trading since the 4/25 and 5/10 withdrawals, is very likely; he will have sold 59,000 since the first withdrawal on December 17th (i.e., THE market top) - or 30% of the 195,000 he is ultimately tasked with selling. This leaves just 137,000, worth just under $1.2 billion; i.e., 0.8% of all Bitcoin outstanding.
Which not only is “chump change” in terms of the $300 trillion legacy financial markets; but a small enough amount of Bitcoin that if the Trustee showed even a modest level of transparency – and fiduciary responsibility – it would be swallowed up by bargain-hunting billionaires and institutions instantly. Either way, the more that gets sold; and the closer we get to the next Mt Gox lawsuit decree – in September, when it may potentially be settled; the closer we get to institutions swarming at the prospect of buying artificially cheap Bitcoin, before its largest-ever “overhang” is lifted.
Per my Tweets of the past week, if indeed the 24,000 have been sold; or, more likely, will be shortly, the low of this Mt Gox Trustee-induced plunge will have been $7,930… which lasted as briefly as the $5,970 low on February 6th, the day the Mt Gox Trustee withdrew, and sold in capitulatory fashion, 8,000 Bitcoin. In other words, a MUCH higher low – to the tune of 33%; as opposed to the $1,300 price King TA FUDster has been warning of since that fateful day 3½ months ago.
https://twitter.com/Andy_Hoffman_CG/status/997938254715305985
Given how many variables affect the (still illiquid) Bitcoin market, there is no way of knowing what the price will do tomorrow, next week, or next month. And given the most likely scenario of the Mt Gox Trustee selling most, or all of his remaining 137,000 Bitcoin this year; likely, in equally irresponsible fashion; extreme price volatility is all but given.
However, as discussed in this article; and my previous commentaries and Tweets; the mosaic being built by anecdotal evidence is extremely Bitcoin-bullish – which under what I consider the most likely Mt Gox Trustee scenario, could yield a significant price surge in the second half of the year.
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