11/17 ANDY HOFFMAN (CryptoGoldCentral.com): More Thoughts on the SV Fork – What, Why, and How?

We’re three days into the defining crypto event of 2018 – which is saying a lot, given all that has occurred thus far. To wit, Bitcoin topped two weeks before 2017 ended; and the epic altcoin bubble, caused by the wave of crypto hedge funds that launched in January, a month later. The Mt Gox Trustee revealed his actions soon thereafter - just before we learned that indeed, Bitmain had also been dumping thousands of Bitcoin to support its BCash Ponzi.

Next, the SEC ETF FUD; and finally, the eerie calm before what commenced this week, seemingly out of the blue. I.e., the unprecedentedly malicious attack by the disgraced Craig Wright – who seemingly; comically, if so; believes he can usurp BCash AND Bitcoin by burning a rogue billionaire’s money; spreading unconscionably malicious FUD (particularly ironic, given his claim to be Satoshi); and dumping his pools’ Bitcoin to support the effort.

I’d say I’m in awe of the evil we have witnessed – so much so, it’s made Ver and Wu look like mere pikers. However, nothing about Bitcoin’s history has been “normal” – including the evil the “Bitcoin Jesus” injected into to the space before he was eventually, ignominiously destroyed by the Bitcoin community. In Wright’s case, we appear to have a “natural” sociopath - and corrupt, megalomaniacal demagogue; as opposed to the original BCash leaders, a conman/zealot and a ruthless, power-hungry businessman. Either way, the best way to be destroyed by crypto is attempting to “take over” Bitcoin; and just as Ver and Wu miserably failed, Wright will, too.

That said, the big question - that I have not yet been able to discern - is what on Earth is Wright’s “plan.” He speaks a big game, with Tweets suggesting his all-powerful pools can decimate the Bitcoin price and stop the BCash network cold. Also, that he doesn’t care how long it takes, and can wait it out no matter how long – presumably, because his billionaire partner is willing to absorb unlimited losses. In other words, as Thomas Hunt said on our Bitcoin Group podcast yesterday, it’s like the movie Reservoir Dogs – in which one needs to rely on other criminals to succeed. Except in this case, the “job” is an unwinnable war against Bitcoin.

https://twitter.com/Andy_Hoffman_CG/status/1063550790994804736

Early in the Mt Gox Trustee fiasco, there was no knowledge of what he was doing. In fact, it wasn’t until months later that we learned he started selling on December 17th – i.e., the day Bitcoin peaked; and stopped February 6th, the day Bitcoin first bottomed. There was a second wave of sales in May, that unquestionably contributed to the accompanying plunge from $10,000 to $6,000; but by then, it was a known quantity - absorbed by the market, until it was publicly revealed during the summer that he was done selling.

And the same goes here – as right now, no one truly knows what Wright and his partner, Calvin Ayre, are up to. Thus, the maximum FUD – which I assure you, they were counting on. Are they in fact dumping Bitcoin indiscriminately to fund their hash rate attack on BCash – and in turn, is Bitmain dumping whatever Bitcoin it still has to fight back? If so, Wright is not only setting himself up for a spectacular failure – a la Bitmain – but in the process, putting the final nails in Bitmain’s coffin. This, just a week after Wu was ignominiously removed from his post as Managing Director – which is exactly what I predicted would happen, as there is NO WAY Wall Street will bail Bitmain out unless they get to run the shots.

Given the futility of trying to actually attack Bitcoin – with funding and reputation far inferior to what BCash had, my best guess is that they are simply executing a giant dump and pump scheme…using Ayre’s billions to short the market and FUD it down during a period of extremely weak sentiment and precarious “technicals” - so they can buy later on, when blood is in the streets. Not that I can prove it, of course. However, Occam’s Razor suggests it’s very possible – particularly when one views SV’s lunatic code, featuring 128 MB blocks with not a chance of practically working.

One thing we do know, is that after BCash’s hash rate modestly declined after the fork, it suddenly EXPLODED higher yesterday, to all-time highs. Is this Bitmain selling more Bitcoin to buy hash power to fend off SV? Or does it somehow incorporate SV’s hash rate, too (though I somehow doubt this is the case)? Clearly, SOMEONE is spending a LOT of money to increase hash rate – and most likely, that money is coming from the NON-FUNDAMENTAL sales of Bitcoin.

https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin%20cash-hashrate.html

Stranger still, is that following the fork, the sum of the BCash and SV market caps is higher than before the fork. Not that “SV Futures” should be mistaken for market cap – particularly if they are being supported by Ayre, which is very possible. And don’t forget the lack of replay protection that will make it unsafe for most BCH holders to receive SV.

https://www.tokendaily.co/bitcoin-cash-satoshi-s-vision-futures

However, the fact remains that BCH plus SV futures equals about $525 (with BCash accounting for 75% of the value) – compared to roughly $470 for BCash plus SV at the beginning of the month, when SV futures started trading. This, while Bitcoin has declined from roughly $6,300 to today’s $5,600. In other words, the BCash Civil War; which came about because BCash failed - proving Bitcoin’s immutability, anti-fragility, and strength; has somehow enriched BCash holders at Bitcoin holders’ expense. To that end, as there is NO WAY the crypto community has collectively, on the spur-of-the-moment, decided SV will usurp Bitcoin, the only rational explanation is that in fact, at least SV – through its mining pools; and likely, Bitmain, too; are dumping Bitcoin to fund their war.

Only time will tell what is actually going on behind the scenes. However, the one thing I am certain of is that Bitcoin will prevail – potentially, much sooner than anticipated as major institutions start to piece together this puzzle. Let alone, if Bakkt physical-backed Bitcoin futures and/or the SolidX/Van Eck Bitcoin ETF are approved for trading, as expected, in the coming weeks.