Though Bitcoin did not seem to have the strength to continue in strengthening this past week, it finally found strength on Friday afternoon. Before that, Bitcoin was weaker and weaker so the price had nearly touched 5100 USD. From this level, it has bounced up and at the time of writing, the price of 1 bitcoin is slightly below 6000 USD.
Which Bitcoin will we do a next price analysis on?
In my previous analysis, I promised 7000 USD. Last week it did not work out, but the next one it could. The first price driver is the fork of Bitcoin Gold, which will be launched on Wednesday 25 October. Even this coin is not much popular and there is unverified information it is a premined fraud, the lure of a free money is really attractive. Moreover, the importance of Bitcoin Gold will not exceed Bitcoin Cash in any way, so I do not expect significant downtime after the fork.
The Segwit2x fork can be more important, and there may actually be a split of bitcoin value. At this point it is not clear which of the upcoming blockchains will be considered as the true Bitcoin, so I am curious about this. I would like to know what bitcoin I will write the next analysis about. This event about this second force can significantly influence the price.
Let’s see the graph:
Ideally, the fork will come out at a price of 6900 USD. Around 7000 USD, the top line of the local growth channel will meet the top line of the global growth channel, which should be a stop signal. Following the pattern of the previous peaks, growth could continue to 7570 USD, but with the oncoming date of the next fork there can be another correction, following by the silence before the storm. And then it depends how the fork will end. This is really unknown at this moment.
Of course, we must consider the option of a big sale, because no technical analysis can predict what crazy ideas can be born in the head of a wealthy speculator. Just as the price of bitcoin is still partly in the hands of China, it may create some random events and the short-term sales. Therefore, use a stoploss everywhere!
Mood in the market, interests on the stock exchanges
OKEX reports that most of the top traders are 61% in long, with around 35% of the capital in margin (19% on short)
Mood on Bitfinex is 30:18 in favor of long positions.
Dollars can be borrowed at 0.2% per day. Bitcoins can be obtained at 0.018% per day.
Recommendation: Hodl, prepare for the potential falls and high volatility.
Disclaimer: These articles cannot be considered as investment advice, and it is still a good idea to make speculation on bitcoin stock exchanges only with funds you can afford to lose. High profit potential is balanced with a significant risk of losing, especially here on the crypto markets.
This is an article from btctip.cz which was translated with the permission of Karel. Česká verze k mání zde.