Recession probability remains low.

The probability we were in a recession in March was 0.5%.

This model undergoes revision as more data becomes available for previous months than was available at the time of the initial probability.

January's revised probability is 0.8% compared to the previous estimate of 1.4%. And February's revised probability is 0.4% compared to the previous estimate of 1.5%.

So the probability we are in a recession remains extremely low. The highest we have gotten since the pandemic recession is 1.9% in December, 2022.

Historically if we are in a recession, the probability would get above 80%.