Attention: This post has been written by @princewahaj

I hope that you enjoyed my last analysis in which we studied about few hints and predicted a few things. Almost all of them went extremely well except one thing which is STEEM. I stated that Steem is new and depends on many other things than few technical things. It is also about supply of Steem and circulation of Steem in hands of people (i.e in machines).

We will move to our topic shortly but let me point out something before I start, to make sure that you understand the situation completely.

For now, the problem is, most people are selling their STEEM which is causing lot of panic in the market. Sellers are in majority and buyers are in minority. I must say that I have few millionaire friends who always look for opportunity to buy something, I didn't introduce Steem to them at that time because I wanted other things to settle first. They can invest around 100k at a time but what will be the benefit if you guys are selling your steem against them?

We need BUY pressure and more circulation of wealth. AND we need more ways to distribute steem like online stores which could accept steem or steem dollar as a payment option. At this point, contacting Paypal (and other payment processor which accepts Bitcoin) for their service and asking about their interest might be a good idea since developers are running this beautiful steemit promotion. They might be interested to work with CEOs. We can also touch Fiverr about adding Steem dollar as their payment option. At-least it will introduce steem to large number of people. Anyways, these are just ideas and I am not completely sure about it. Just throwing them to more better heads than mine.

Buy pressure means big buy volume in the market, and that's when steem reached to the sky, right? and that's exactly when steem was worth $4 but now it hardly stay at $0.90.

Anyways, now we can get back to our topic. We will analyze the following:

• USD Index
• Bitcoin
• Steem
• Steem Dollar

Relation Of Those Instruments With Each Other:

Just like I explained in my first weekly episode, If USD moves up, bitcoin will go down against USD, and if bitcoin goes down and USD rises up, Steem and Steem dollar will rise.

I also mentioned that Steem is pegged with USD. But I would like to correct my mistake that pegged is not a right term to use for Steem. Correlation is a perfect term to use. Almost everything in financial markets is correlated with USD and that's the reason why USD is considered a benchmark currency. If something happens to USD, then you will witness lot of effects on other instruments too because they are correlated. Some are negatively correlation which means, if USD goes up, then those negative correlated instrument goes down, and some are like 50% correlated and some are as low as 1% correlated. It is a mistake to think otherwise. Some are correlated with 10% and some are even -10%. Percentage differs but impossible to not have correlation between financial instruments.

Now lets start analyzing charts.

Technical And Fundamental Analysis Of USD Index:

Just like we discussed last week, USD was expected to rise further, and I even marked my expected level. But hey, picture speaks thousand words, right?

Before: (Last Sunday's Analysis)

After: (Result)

I knew that there is a resistance which could start fighting with USD and same happened this week.

Resistance and support fought with each other and resistance pushed USD to move a little bit downwards (I marked resistance as R1) But now when I re-analyzed the chart today, I witnessed an old but effective support level (S1) which again pushed USD upwards and as a result, USD became successful in recovery of its drop.

Although the big news are over like ADP NFP and NFP report etc. There are still few less-important events which can turn the tables sometimes.

Fundamental News:

• ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI - At Tuesday - Big impacts are NOT expected but still better to be careful.
• Unemployment Claims and Crude Oil Inventories report - At Thursday - Big impacts are possible on both news.

Conclusion: USD is expected to rise further because there is an important support level which is old enough to be effective, and great enough to be a blast. But if Monday's candle or Tuesday's candle break the support, then you can expect the opposite means, downtrend.

Technical And Fundamental Analysis Of Bitcoin:

This is something you might love to know about. We analyzed both possibilities last week and from the looks of Sunday's chart, it wasn't clear enough that where bitcoin will head, but both possibilities were clear enough on chart. At that time, I expected bitcoin to break the support level but it didn't. Although USD rose upwards but due to other supports of Bitcoin, bitcoin stayed sideways till USD rose, but when USD started to fall again, BTC showed its beauty and completed one of the expected possibility.

Before: (Last Sunday's Analysis)

In above image, I explained second possibility graphically that BTC might break support, and broken support will become its resistance, and then after hitting on resistance it might drop further. But BTC wasn't even successful to break the support. Rather, it stayed sideways when USD was rising up.

After: (Result)

In above chart, I included more graphics for this week. BTC is expected to reach to pink TL slowly despite the fact that USD just reversed a little from support.. Once it reach to TL, we will then decide whether it will continue or drop.

Conclusion: BTC is still expect to rise but slowly. I do not expect BTC to break pink TL this week. It might happen next week but we will cover these things in our next weekly episode. If USD also start its downtrend, then it will become obvious for BTC to cross the TL.

Technical And Fundamental Analysis Of Steem And Steem Dollar:

Here we go again. You guys might be excited to see what's coming, and you should be. Steem and Steem dollar, both are going through dangerous downtrends and steemians are not feeling comfortable and looking for food of thought. No problem, I'll feed you that food :)

Steem:

So, we analyzed last week and found that there is a great support level. We expected Steem to reverse from that support level. Although Steem reversed last week but resistance level which I just found today, pushed it downwards again, and just like I explained in the start of today's analysis, Steem depends on many other things. Whales are powering down and that might not be a good thing from one perspective but it might be a good thing from second perspective.

I referenced past analysis in red color and presented new perspective in green which is valid for this week. The rectangle box represent two important support areas where Steem might reverse with great power and speed. There were two things I missed last week. One of tem was trendline and second was old steem launching resistance (the high of the day when Steem launched)

Conclusion: For this week, I expect Steem to first drop further till rectangle box and then reverse from rectangle box to upwards just like I indicated with green arrow. USD direction might not play a great role because correlation of Steem with USD is not high. Correlation of steem with USD might be -3% or -5% which do not counts practically. Although it means a lot theoritically.

Steem Dollar:

Last week, some people raised objection on TLs that it do not serve any benefit but today's chart is such good that it will explain everything to them. Trendlines might not serve big benefit but you can't say "any benefit". As long as TL serves even 1%, then it counts, because we never know when the 1% start to come in play mode...

SBD is now reaching to rectangle box. Remember that rectangle box represents two support areas and both of them are great enough. SBD is expected to drop further till it touch the rectangle box and then it will start to rise and break the black TL too. Just give it enough time and room and keep supporting SBD.

For those people who expect SBD to be worth $2.5 again, it's very difficult considering the current situation. Of-course you might get there but it might take around an year to see that figure again. Even if SBD recovers to $1.20, then it will be a huge achievement. SBD situation is not that worst for now because we can see that the day SBD launchd, it faced a terrible low, and current situation is better than the first day of SBD. So you can still expect SBD to rise.

The opposite scenario is, if SBD successfully break the rectangle box, then SBD might start to make new downtrend history. It must recover from the rectangle box otherwise situation might become out of control.

Conclusion: Although I was clear enough but in short words, SBD is expected to drop a little and then recover. Bottom line is, do not panic.

That's the end for this week. I hope that you liked the analysis. Please do not forget to follow me at @princewahaj for continuous updates about more educational and fun stuff.

Please note that all of these analysis are meant for educational purpose only. I do not suggest any buy/sell action. If you take any action based on these analysis, then I am not responsible for the result. Please be the man enough to accept your responsibility. I cannot be blamed for your actions.

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Attention: This post has been written by @princewahaj

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