AFL Fantasy Draft Steemit League Luck Ladder - Round 10 (Week 9)

We've all heard the phrase "Just the luck of the draw" thrown around in sporting parlance. It's often used to brush off a bit of bad luck, or even good fortune. But let's take a little bit of a closer look at what that means for us here in the Steemit @aflfantasy Draft League.

What I have below is a way to attribute a value to just how lucky (or unlucky) we all are over the course of the season.

So how does it work? At the end of each round, I rank everyone's score in order from highest to lowest, then each score is attributed a Win Value based on the number of teams you potentially could have beaten, for example if you top scored, you would beat 15 out of 15 possible opponents, so you would be credited with 1 win. If you bottom score, you'd beat 0 out of 15, so you would get 0 wins. If you have the 5th highest score, you'd beat 11 out of 15 opponents, so you'd get 11/15ths of a win (0.733). Once each team is allocated their Win Value, we can then compare the Win Value (or statistically probable estimated wins) to the Actual Wins. A score where Actual Wins > Expected Wins is a Lucky Score. A score where Actual Wins < Expected Wins is an Unlucky Score.

So how did we all fare in Week 9?

@dahmsy79 protected the bounty again this week, and top scored as well as having the satisfaction of getting the win against his wife @shesasaint - and us married men don't get many of those opportunities so I hope he's making the most of it, so he gets 1 Expected Win, and even though a quarter of the league failed to score over 1100 points this week (3 of them under 1000), Cunning Stunts was the lowest ranked team, so he gets 0 Expected Wins. The rest fall somewhere in between.

The graphic below, shows us how we all went comparatively this week (highlighted in yellow), as well as the overall Luck Ladder (highlighted in green)

So as we can see, Little Old Lady is still the "Luckiest" status, with seven sweet victories, almost two more than he would ordinarily be expected to have. At the other end of the scale, Medhurst's Minions (@medhursc) has lost again despite posting a very respectable 1386 which would have beaten more than half the field this week, as he came up against once of six teams that posted ovr 1400 so he stays anchored to the bottom of the Luck Ladder, almost three wins behind his expected total.

So that's the luck of the draw for week 9. I'll update this each week through the course of the season so we can all keep track of how we're travelling...

If you find this even remotely interesting, leave me a comment. If there's anything I could explain better, let me know.

Cheers,
Sparkesy