zafrada (78)in #nate • 20 hours agoNow do unemployment you dingus.We are above pre-pandemic forecasts for GDP and employment. That's objectively good. Pre-pandemic expected systemic…zafrada (78)in #sahm • 2 days agoSahm rule untriggered?The Sahm rule is technically no longer triggered (if you don't round) after unemployment fell. Another popular…zafrada (78)in #rwanda • 3 days agoNow up to 12 deaths in Rwanda's Marburg outbreak.Silver lining to this is that the US is sending an experimental Marburg vaccine to Rwanda and the Rwandan government…zafrada (78)in #economy • 3 days agoExcellent jobs report.We added 254k jobs in September. Well above expectations. And unemployment went further down to 4.1%. Also better than…zafrada (78)in #doj • 4 days ago"you can't explain my crimes so close to an election!"Trump is complaining about Jack Smith's filing in the federal election interference case and falsely claiming it…zafrada (78)in #polling • 5 days agoBetter than I expected.This is actually a big recovery from Biden's numbers. Biden was getting only 17% and Trump was getting 40% in their…zafrada (78)in #election • 6 days agoThoughts on the VP debate.Last night I could not catch all of the debate as I was putting my kids to bed. Vance definately handled himself…zafrada (78)in #mlb • 7 days agoRIP, Pete Rose.He was an all-time great hitter, and his numbers would normally easily justify putting him in the Hall of Fame.…zafrada (78)in #nate • 8 days agoThis is a good thread to understand cross tabs in polling.But it also makes me wonder why Nate Cohn so often treats his Times/Siena cross tabs as gospel if he understands…zafrada (78)in #trump • 9 days agoTrump tactics sink to new thuggish lows.New SEO technique: threaten to prosecute leading search engine unless it starts making your results more flattering.…zafrada (78)in #rasmussen • 10 days agoNate continues racking up reasons to ignore him.Lol. Nate Silver didn't already have Rasmussen Reports labeled as a Republican pollster? He's a joke. At this point…zafrada (78)in #election • 11 days agoHere is an update on all the election forecasts.The Economist: Harris with a ~60% chance. FiveThirtyEight: Harris with a 58% chance. Nate Silver: Harris with a…zafrada (78)in #split • 11 days agoSplit Ticket's election forecast updates.Harris with 57% chance to win the presidency. Republicans with a 79% chance to take the Senate. And Democrats with a…zafrada (78)in #maryland • 12 days agoNew University of Maryland poll of Maryland.As expected Alsobrooks is starting to put distance between her and Larry Hogan in the Maryland Senate race. She is up…zafrada (78)in #election • 13 days agoPew polling of Latino voters matches what Biden got in 2020.This is from Pew's national polling from August 26th to September 2nd, so before the debate. This is a sample of 691…zafrada (78)in #election • 14 days agoThis is an underrated point.The Electoral Count Reform Act of 2022 explicitly made the governor responsible for certification and they could only…zafrada (78)in #election • 15 days agoNew Times/Siena battleground polling of Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona.Some of Trump's best state polling in awhile. Fwiw the North Carolina poll was conducted partly before the Mark…zafrada (78)in #electoral • 16 days agoHere is how the electoral college bias looks like in Nate Silver's model.Right now the model expects an electoral college bias of 1.7. That'd be significantly less than it was in 2020…zafrada (78)in #tweet • 16 days agoThought Jesse was one of the good ones.This tweet response is even dumber when you read what it is responding to. Why yes the presence of a devastating…zafrada (78)in #election • 18 days agoIt is always kinda a weird argument when people saying voting doesn't matter.Even at the presidential level, we've had incredibly close elections recently. And there's nothing intrinsically…