The Keys to the Moon

One day, in the distant future, I aim to hand my daughter some keys and even though she will not be able to drive anywhere, I hope they will open some doors of possibility. The keys will be to a alt-coin portfolio and hopefully, they will be worth something. Lots of wills but maybe, could and potentially are likely better suited.

It is interesting how fast things can change though and who knows what will happen in the future but, very few saw the pathway the past has taken up until this point. Predicting what will survive, how things will get regulated, what are scams, what will boom in the long-term is massively difficult. Right now, it is relatively easy to pick short-term as essentially, everything is going up. But in a decade? Two?

This is why so many people will rely on their traditional portfolios, their managed funds, and retirement packages as they are 'guaranteed' in their view. Of course, I and many others do not have the same thoughts on their reliability and especially, those who manage them. It is a challenge though isn't it.

I was talking with a friend the other day about a hypothetical with bitcoin where someone put 100 dollars into a managed fund at the start of 2017 with an expected return of 10 % and 2 dollars into Bitcoin. Which one performed better? Well, that is pretty obvious as the 2 dollars out performed the 100 by about 200%. Yes, high risk but, it was only 2 percent of the portfolio. For those that put 10,000 away a year into their retirement, that would be 200 dollars. The 10,000 would make 1000 at 10%, the 200 would have made 4000. Crazy? Absolutely!

It obviously can't last at these rates and the more people in, the more stable it will become. It is currently a little bit like the Wild West except instead of staking out land, we are staking coins. The early investors are going to be like the oil barons and the gold mine owners of the past who's families still benefit to this day from the work of their long-dead relatives. But, many more are still set to benefit, this is still just above ground floor.

Steem was at 7c and now about 7 dollars. That is 100x in less than a year. But even at 7 dollars, I think it is severely under valued and what will it look like in another 2 or 3 years from now when there are millions onboarded and SMTs spread far and wide across the internet? That's right, who knows. It is very hard to predict all of this when there is so much uncertainty in play. But, that is why there can be such astronomical growth.

But, this means that building a portfolio for my daughter is going to be very difficult and is going to require a lot of attention to make sure that what it holds, isn't going to be valueless in 17 years. Of course, I am guessing I am not going to be able to hold everything myself until then so hopefully I will have something to show for the work too.

But, this is a challenge of cryptocurrencies currently as a long-term investment strategy, the kind of thing that retirement funds can be built upon, they are too uncertain. This will settle but how will it settle is going to be important for the masses looking to secure their future after working life ends. I don't have the financial nor technological understanding to figure this out for myself.

I think many are hoping that they will make so much from this they can retire early but, that means that they will have to convert to fiat or gold or some other type of asset, it can't stay in crypto. At least, not currently. Of course, there is a long way to go and many changes on the way across many sectors with technologies not yet thought of still to come.

When the time does come to hand over the Keys to my daughter, forget just what the portfolio will look like, how will the world look? My dad told me stories of arguments he had in the early 50s with his father about 'Man going to the moon'. My grandfather said it is impossible and called my father an idealist dreamer. 17 years later....

Taraz
[ a Steemit original ]