Short, Mid & Long Term thoughts during this BIG pullback - You Want 2 Read this - Even if You don't agree.
With almost 40 yrs experience guiding a number of the Fortune 100, I've been Blessed, making some very significant, major market calls during my career.
The video below is a very well thought out, excellent explanation of the current downturn using very traditional, conservative thinking/rationale... so this is actually an endorsement of a new Steemian @CryptoBud who created this video and I hope he continues to do well both on YouTube and of course, here on STEEMiT.
Please consider following @CryptoBud here on Steemit.
However with that being said, I would like to humbly & respectfully disagree with one major point in the @CryptoBud video AND that is....
How long will this downturn/pullback last...will it be days, weeks, months or possibly years ??
Before I continue... You might well be thinking, why in the world would anyone try and predict when this downturn will end ??
This is complete & utter foolishness, even most Fools would never attempt to do the near impossible and that is to predict the future, especially the future of such a relatively young, fast moving, radically disruptive market like the CryptoCurrencies.
Quick Note: IF short on time, go to YouTube settings to change the speed to 1.25 or 1.50 faster. ALSO, make sure You at the very least, look at the diagram illustrating the HISTORY of BITCOIN at the 16:30 minute mark. Please also keep in mind that the past does NOT guarantee the future going forward...
SO... why would I be so foolish to try to pick the timing of this downturn & even suggest the low price of BTC during this downturn.
The primary reason is not to gain notoriety/acclaim or even money via UpVoting...
The primary reason is to influence, in a positive/forward thinking way, the PERCEPTION of our STEEMians here and perhaps, with any luck... others outside of our Steemit Community.
WHY would I want to influence perception ??... AND the answer is...
For too many decades & centuries, we have witnessed "The Powers That (were) Be" strategically influence the general public to essentially take advantage... either monetarily, politically or any other "goals" to continue the ever continuing & ongoing suppression of humanity and the world, as a whole.
Make no mistake, Blockchain Technology & Cryptos are here to stay and this was easily witnessed & evidenced within the last 5 months when the total market cap for cryptos went from around $20 Billion to OVER $100 Billion. This was not just individuals entering into the markets... this was Central Banks, Large Corporations, Hedge Funds and even countries going into various/specialized areas of the crypto market.
HOWEVER, Big Money has a problem... they do not yet fully control the crypto markets and of course, this is their ultimate goal.
So, BIG Money needs Time, so what to do... because Innovation & Time waits for no one... and the answer to this is very easy and "tried & true"... CREATE FEAR as much as possible, to "buy" MORE Time.
Markets have been controlled/manipulated by two primary emotional, human short-comings... FEAR and GREED.
~~~ CONCLUSION and Final Points on PRICE & TIME ~~~
Let's first touch on where Bitcoin is most likely to bottom out...
Obviously there still is a considerable amount of Fear & Confusion (that was intentionally created) regarding what will be decided either on August 1st and could possibly be prolonged until October 2017, for finalization.
With that being said, we will likely have less FEAR & Confusion in about 2 weeks or the beginning of the 1st week or so, of August.
So based upon technical analysis and a few other types of analysis, the Price of Bitcoin should bottom out between $1,300 to $1,800 dollars...the lower the bottom the faster the move will be to the upside.
This price analysis almost coincides with the compelling/cogent ideas/concepts of "The Wolf"... his Twitter handle being @WolfOfPoloniex... That was a strong recommendation, by the way, for "The Wolf".
Now let's talk about TIME... meaning how long should this downturn last ??
Traditionally & conservatively I would absolutely agree with @CryptoBud and his video... However, we are no longer living, where time is the same as it was say 30 years, 20 years, 10 years, 5 years or even 1 year ago.
We are witnessing a global paradigm shift of the not only our collective, global form of "money" but there are numerous other industries besides Global Banking... that IF they don't soon begin to consider AND implementing Blockchain Techologies, they will either lose profits & market share or Both !!... meaning "Time is of The Essence".
The almost countless global paradigm shifts mentioned in the previous paragraph are somewhat metaphorical of a HUGE Tsunami Wave hitting every continent simultaneously & continuously... EXCEPT they are converging upon entire continents of the world and not just the coast lines... AND this is a Great Global perpetual, interconnected OCCURRENCE because finally people around the world will be "heard" because they will be voting with their money (crypto) of their choice.
The actual truth is "The Powers That (were) Be" are in a FULL state of PANIC and are hoping that the FEAR they are constantly "broadcasting" via many types of media ( AND Yes, this includes all forms of Fake News, TV shows, Movies & many other types of broadcasting/communication... Also look into the psychology of "Manufacturing Consent"...((sorry I still need to fully understand how to embed web links)).
"The Powers That (were) Be" are hoping that they create a FULL Capitulation (general public submission) of the crypto markets, at least this is "The Powers That (were) Be" most desired outcome... and why, because that's how they always manipulate (screw) the "little guy"... and of course, "For the Greater Good of ALL"... (huge sarcasm).
This is somewhat similar to what happened on June 3rd, 1933... FDR "took us" off the Gold Standard internally BUT NOT externally. This is why they could still falsely utter the words, the dollar was "as good as gold". Again the little guy got manipulated (screwed).
AND now here is part of the GOOD News, "The Powers That (were) Be" could possibly be "check-mated" within the next few years & their financial (war) games will be over because they are running and lagging incredibly behind the rapidly growing, exponential rate of BlockChain INNOVATION.
While the USA has/is actively (and covertly) looking for ways to trip-up or slow down the crypto markets (Bitcoin is the primary "target")... while numerous other countries are now openly pursuing/focusing the many new ways to incorporate/utilize BlockChain Technology AND Crypto Currencies.
"The Powers That (were) Be" are hoping ( and yes, possibly praying ) that people give-in/submit to the FEAR that they are almost constantly creating AND thus, will have "bought" a few more years of TIME to further their ends... (( and Yes, that last pun was intended ))
~~~ TIME is QUICKENING/EXPONENTIALLY with each and everyday ~~~
There was a New York BestSeller written 47 years ago in 1970 about Time & the Future called "FUTURE SHOCK" by Futurist, Alvin Toffler. This book is especially helpful if people are "curious" why TIME seems to be going FASTER...
TIME is now being highly influenced by the accelerating pace of innovation & the internet, as well as other "forces" that will go unmentioned at this time. The internet still to this day, is NOT fully controlled by "The Powers That (were) Be"...
So information and the ability to unduly influence Perception is actually going away and again for many reasons, but perhaps the primary reason is People all over the World do not believe the news, often called Fake News... nor do they trust their politicians, government leaders or almost any "Centralized Authority", for that matter.
HERE is where I put my "neck in the noose" and give a summation of WHEN the market turn-around from the bottom of the latest downturn will occur... which only a FOOL like myself would attempt.
The turn around needs to coincide with the Price Action of the Market, meaning the price of Bitcoin... the Faster & more complete the downward capitulation of the price of Bitcoin as we near August 1st, the more likely we have seen the current bottom... meaning we need to see the price of Bitcoin drop into the price range of $1,300 to $1,800 from today's current high of $2,161.47.
IF on the other hand, the price of Bitcoin holds and does not go back down into the lower range below $1,800 BEFORE or soon thereafter August 1st, then there still is the possibility of another break down of the price of Bitcoin as we move into the 4th quarter of 2017.
And AGAIN, the real paradox/threat for the Global Central Bankers is Time... they ARE running out of Time to fully take control of the crypto markets because other Global Industries are NOT going to wait in their pursuit to utilize the rapid advancements & Innovations of BlockChain Technology.
I guess this is why true innovation is almost always considered to be disruptive...which can be a VERY GOOD thing as it pertains to the old/outdated & essentially obsolete paradigms of the Global Central Bankers/Fractional Reserve Banking. The Central Bankers have really "painted" themselves "into a corner" this time and are willing to do almost anything... even attempt to start WW III, which in my humble opinion will never happen at this point in TIME...
Please look forward to my update to this post around the August 1st time period... the market AND the psychology of the market will reveal more...
Also know there once was a man called W.D. Gann and when I worked in the Banking Industry, I worked fairly closely with someone that spent almost a full year in the basement containing all of the work of W.D. Gann.
We called this person "The Shadow" because he some how knew when market events were going to happen. The Shadow shared probably more information with me, many years after I had left the bank, than he had ever shared with anyone else.
The unfortunate thing is I have not been able to fully unravel the mathematical relationships that Gann utilized... but I can tell You this, there is a definite relationship between the PRICE & TIME of every traded security... and THIS understanding was the primary tool that Gann had solved and enabled him to predict prices into the future and sometimes on the exact day in TIME... that the predicted price would be achieved.
Until the next time... Cheers !!
Thank You for reading this post AND... Please comment below to share Your thoughts, ideas, constructive criticism... because together, we can ALL benefit from an OPEN Exchange of ideas AND... make the World a Better Place to Live in.
100% of the liquid proceeds from this post will be donated to various groups that are supporting the new people here...just as I have already previously donated at least 35% of all my liquid assets to various support groups and good people in need.
My primary motivation to be on Steemit is to learn from people that are truly much smarter/stronger in areas that I am weak or uninformed.
Thanks Again for coming by to read this post...
Previous Posts:
https://steemit.com/photography/@sacred-agent/color-challenge-saturday-indigo-original-photography
@Scrooger freely provided text dividers & the animated GIF below & will be receiving a monetary Thank You soon.
If you enjoyed this post, please consider Upvoting, Resteeming and...
Following @sacred-agent for more... Cheers !!
Hi mate, great post! I see you took some advice I gave you and used it to your advantage! I cant wait reading another story from your hand! Btw; is the shadow still active? If so; what's his number? 😎
@Cem... Hi, there seems to be some confusion.
I sent 2.00 SBD to both @minnowbooster and @boost ... for some reason instead of this post receiving a boost... You comment received the 2 boosts.
Please help me reconcile this because I've promised to donate 100% of the liquid proceeds to MSP...
Thank You Cem
Yes, Thank You Cem. Haven't spoken to "The Shadow" in about 4 yrs and unfortunately he is a very private person.
Thanks Again Cem !!
@sacred-agent got you a $3.85 @minnowbooster upgoat, nice! (Image: pixabay.com)
Want a boost? Click here to read more!
@minnowbooster There was a mistake... I sent 2.00 SBD to have this post boosted but somehow this boost was given to Cem's reply to this post instead.
Please try to reconcile this error... Thank You @minnowbooster
Respectfully requested, @Sacred-Agent
You have to check the url. We can vote on comments and if you want to vote on the post make sure to have the post url
Thank You Reggae... appreciate Your "Heads-Up"...
Cheers !!
This comment has received a 6.76 % upvote from @booster thanks to: @sacred-agent.
I now know exactly why you are called sacred-agent..your knowledge and ability to break down complex concepts to be easily understand is uncanny :)
This was a great read. Even with all text, I read lustfully the entire way till the bottom. :)) Great Job, @sacred-agent!
Thank You Very Much Foodie and I hope to continue to learn much more about other areas that, quite frankly, I'm very uninformed or completely ignorant of.
Thanks Again... Cheers !!
You are very modest @sacred-agent. That is a mark of true character, so big kudos to you :) We'll learn along with you then! :))
Wow this post is really well put together @sacred-agent!
I feel to that the old paradigme is dying and decentralization will be the future. I just hope the struggle between the old and the new wont take too hard a toll on the crypto movement and scare people away from it.
I have this feeling that BTC will drop at least 20% sometime in august, I'm not sure though. I have liquidated my BTC position and keeping my fingers crossed for a comming bear market.
Thank You Dan, The old Paradigm is dying a slow death & will eventually become irrelevant, imho
There is no fighting required, just simple adoption to a better/improved way to hold money.
The People have always had the power, they just have given it away to Centralized Governments, Authorities AND Central Banks... THIS is changing because of innovation & awareness.
Time Will Tell in regards to Bitcoin's current price...
Innovation will always "drive" the path we are ALL on...
Thanks Again Dan... Cheers !!
That was a pretty cool post and the story of that guy who worked with you is pretty intriguing.
Bitcoin price took off nicely today. That was nice. 2 weeks ago I know a pullback to 1,800-2,000$ so I wasn't so surprise but it's always nicer to see the price go up than down.
I didn't expect it to go back up this much and this fast. Probably going to see a pullback before another rally.
I don't like trading so I'm not even trying to make money doing it.
I'm just trying to enjoy my life to the fullest.
Steem on sacred-agent!
@TeamSteem... Thank You for Your Encouragement, Guidance & Support.
Great post, @sacred-agent! I agree it can be folly to try and predict when the bottom will hit. But we should all look at current price "struggles" to be a gift...giving us a chance to load up while the price is low. I also believe the Aug 1 changes are all hype and told as much to a friend over the weekend. They won't be able to scare me out of my cryptos...much like my gold and silver! :-)
@Randomness... Thank You for coming by and for Your insightful perspective to view this pullback as a "gift" and "giving us a chance to load up while the price is low"...
This is ESPECIALLY True for purchasing STEEM which is currently priced at $1.08, as this reply is being written.
Thanks Again for expressing Your opinion for others to see & possibly consider/contemplate.
Cheers !!
I agree about STEEM. I was upset when I didn't pull the trigger when it hit 83 cents over the weekend. Still moving forward!
@Randomness... I know how You feel about missing opportunities... I miss opportunities almost every day AND have made some less than good decisions even in the last couple of weeks.
However I did buy Bitcoin practically at the low yesterday morning which was part luck & part just being there at the right time. Later that day, Bitcoin rallied $200 above where I purchased it earlier, then pulled back a bit... AND Yes, was definitely scared a bit when making that Bitcoin purchase because that is the natural/normal emotional feeling a person should be experiencing when buying near the low.
The point is we are never going to be perfect... we just have to continue to work hard AND smart... over time everything else will sort itself out.
We just need to "keep moving forward".... as You suggested.
I'm very lucky because there is no real urgency to make money writing posts here. The primary reason I've stayed here is because there are so many daily insights AND wisdom that is shared here by some of the TOP Steemians here on Steemit.
There is a significant "learning curve" regarding the crypto markets and quite frankly, still have much to learn, even with the financial background I come from.
In addition there are so many significant changes happening every day in the crypto markets that we ALL do really need each other's talents/experience BECAUSE there is no way any one person, totally by themselves that can really "keep up" with all the fast moving changes occurring all over the entire planet.
Thank God... WE Actually do Need Each Other...if we want to stay informed.
Thank You 4 sharing. Cheers !!
Great input and well said. I'm on Steemit for the long haul. I write because I think people will care about what I have to say at some point. I know I won't get 1000+ followers overnight. Just have to keep eating away at it a little at a time and eventually you'll make an impact and maybe some money at some point.
But crypto currencies are here for the long run...well, some of them are, anyway. In 5 years, or even just one year, I doubt we will care too much about a few hundred dollars we overpaid at the time we purchased...because we'll just be happy we got in when we did and didn't delay at all since the price shot up so much.
Hindsight can be 20/20, but I think many of us are seeing ahead to what the future holds and it looks pretty bring in this realm. Like you said, luckily this platform hosts a lot of folks from whom we can gain some guidance!
I like toast 🍞
Sorry this isn't on topic, but I wanted to let you know that I was thinking of you and hope everything is going well for you! I hope you're having a wonderful week, friend!!
Thank You... Good to see You Posting again.
Cheers !!
nice article my man
@gDreyer... Thank You Dreyer... appreciate Your acknowledgement.
Hope You're having a Good Week... Cheers !!
Agent, you know the Wolf made that call and he is a legend for doing it. His target was $1800-$1500. Perhaps you will be the next legend with this call?
Did you her about Goldman patenting a coin/trading technique? http://www.investopedia.com/news/goldman-sachs-cryptocurrency-patent-setlcoin-crypto-settlement-system/?lgl=rira-baseline-vertical
Read it and know they've been in this for a lot longer than we thought.
HF is coming and that is going to cause more chaos ahead. That's my call.
Great post btw.
@rt395... Yes, this is why I acknowledged "The Wolf" in this post and gave out his handle on Twitter @WolfOfPoloniex
Thanks 4 the "Heads-Up" on the patenting of that Coin called SETLcoins.
And You could be right about the HF and certainly the Central Bankers true goal is to "Buy" more time by creating more chaos... however the counter-point is there is huge interest by many other Industries/general public to continue to push forward with BlockChain Technology.
Time will tell...and we really don't have to wait too long to see what happens.
Thanks Again 4 Your comments... Cheers !!
Excellent article and clearly laid out.
This is the time. This is the year. It will all come together.
There was much hand wringing when the banks crashed and governments couldn't wait to dive in and save them. They won't do the same for crypto. They are loving every moment of this.
But they have misread the manual. We are the controllers of this not them. They are as restricted as we are when they come to play in our sandpit and no amount of buying in and dumping by them can change the rules. All it does it enhance the independence.
By Christmas, I predict, the damage to them will be apparent and crypto will have risen in credibility with the ordinary user even if it hasn't risen massively in value.
We are the makers now of our own destiny. Now is the time we hold fast and be patient.
Steem On!
@CentaurMystic... Really like Your comments and Yes, it is the Central Bankers that are in trouble because they are losing control AND Time/Innovation will NOT stop & wait for the Central Bankers to "catch-up".
The general public just needs to get beyond the Fear Propaganda being created everyday.
Time will tell and it will be very interesting to look back this coming Christmas because TIME and Innovation/BlockChain Technology waits for NO one... Let's just keep moving Forward.
Cheers !!
i need to read this in the morning with some coffee :) , voted and resteemed
@Stresskiller... After You've had some coffee please expresso Your thoughts/constructive criticism...
(( Sorry couldn't help myself with the intended pun regarding sharing Your thoughts... ))
Cheers !!
i will do that but now i'm off to bed 2 am here :)
hating myself for promising to read this , i tried but my brain just won't absorb the stuff at school i already had issues with theoretical classes , they where the best ones to fall asleep for me .And since my burn-out in 2008 i'm not even able to read a normal book any more.
So if i see a lot of text with out graphical explanations , i can read it 20 times and still don't know completely what it is about, but that is with most of the blogs that i see on steemit. I guess that is why i mostly check the Photography and art tag only .
No worries Mick...
By the way, looked at some of Your past photography posts and Your Photos are really Good... especially the macro shot of the Purple Thistle.
UpVoted Your Posts & am Following You now... Thanks Again
Cheers !!