Obligatory post about the price of STEEM

remlaps (74)in #steem • 6 years ago

I was here in July/2016 when STEEM sold for $3 or $4, and when STEEM sold at $0.07, and later when it was around $8. Never thought we'd see these lows again, and hopefully we still won't get as low as $.07, but anything might happen... Either way, there are two things we should never worry about: things we can change, and things we can't.

So.... I'm going to enjoy a short work week, spend the Thanksgiving holiday with my family, go about my life, and hope for the best.

But, just for fun, I thought I'd share some info that I check in on every once in a while. First, this graph:

Using data from coinmarketcap, that's the closing price of BTC divided by the closing price of STEEM for the entire life of the Steem blockchain.

And here are some descriptive stats that were calculated by a LibreOffice spread-sheet:

Of course, none of this tells us anything about the future, but I like to read the tea leaves anyway. Some things that I notice are:

The current ratio of BTC/STEEM (11,090.53) is much higher than average (by median and mean), and even well above the 3rd quartile of the data (6,243.49).
After earlier peaks, the subsequent decline has been very fast. For example, after the December 6, 2017 peak at 11,165.23, the ratio had dropped below 2,000 by January 3, 2018 (oversimplifying, this could happen from an increase in STEEM's price or a decrease in BTC's).
The all time high for BTC/STEEM is 16,923.18, and overall, it has spent very little time over 10,000 (or even 8,000).

Switching gears, looking at the same numbers in reverse, here is a chart with both STEEM/BTC (left axis) and Satoshis/STEEM (right axis):

The long term trend of Satoshis/STEEM is sort-of saddening, but it might not be so bad if we throw out the "irrational exuberance" in July/August, 2016. The current value (9,016) is far below average, and even well below the first quartile (16,016.50). It has been bouncing around between 10,000 and 14,000 since August, so a fall to ~9k is a noteworthy decline, and a medium term low, but the all time low is 5,909 (when STEEM was $0.07).

So in short, at the present time, it seems to me that the relative ratio between STEEM and BTC is at an extraordinarily extreme level (low Satoshis/Steem, high STEEM/BTC).

I cannot emphasize enough that all this tells us virtually nothing about the future, and I'm not giving anyone any advice. But personally, if I were forced to make a choice based on this information, I would rather have my holdings sitting in STEEM than in BTC at the moment.

Steve Palmer is an IT professional with three decades of professional experience in data communications and information systems. He holds a bachelor's degree in mathematics, a master's degree in computer science, and a master's degree in information systems and technology management. He has been awarded 3 US patents.

Steve is a co-founder of the Steemit's Best Classical Music Facebook page, and the @classical-music steemit curation account.


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