Yeah, I only trust the first bounce. After it has retested the base then who knows where it will go.. The idea is that there was a panic because it broke a base that everyone trusted, so they panic sold their position.. Then after the panic, the price will try to move up and return back above that previous base where it belongs, but if it is not able to get back above the base, then a new lower price is now been validated.. Everyone will now start putting there stop losses below the new low, and others will buy at that low thinking its good support... and the whloe thing plays out over again..