Statistical Analysis on Pricing
While we eagerly await CARD DELEGATION MARKET ... let's play with some numbers.
STATISTICAL ANALYSIS
In testing for future possible automated features I sometimes do manual analysis.
That's what I did with a nice little google spreadsheet of all the prices form today and exactly 1 week ago. I have been doing the prsent analysis style which takes over an hour to calculate by hand 3 times now over the span of 21 days.
I thought I'd share specially because it describes prices from a deep low and up to some awesome progression.
BIGGEST TAKE AWAY
Bid prices
INTERESTING NOTES
Of the 108 cards between BETA and REWARD
49 Regular foil cards went up in value for LISTINGS
While 67 when up in value for BIDS
For gold foil that was 33/77
What about decreases in pricing well 29 regular foil cards went down in listed price and only 3 went down in BID price.
On the other side 63 gold foil cards decreased in listed value and 13 decreased in bid price.
REGULAR FOIL BIGGEST INCREASES (LIST)
- sacred unicorn 76%
- crypt mancer
- xander foxwood
- browne
- daria dragonscale
- valnamor
- Screaming Banshee
- prince rennyn
- silvershield archers
- plado emberstorm 41%
- elven cutthroat
- jarlax the undead
- ruler of the seas
- maticore
- exploding dwarf
- Goblin Sorcerer
- Minataur Warrior
- the peakrider
- javelin thrower
- Mermaid 30%
The biggest drop in listed pricing
Sometimes these drops in prices are only momentary... that's why an automated system would be significanly better. Specially if it had historical details or averages across a time span.
- Roc 50% (Update price movement moved it to 25%)
- Kobold (Update... price already moved before publishing)
- Silvershield Paladan (Update... price already moved before publishing)
- Spineback Turtle (Update... price already moved before publishing)
- grumpy dwarf
- Serpent Soldier
- shaman
- Beetle
- Spineback wolf
- Skeleton Assason 25%
- imp bowman
- wood nymph
- sea monster
- kiara lightbringer
- Eath Elemental
- Feral Spirit
- chromatic dragon
- Frozen Soldier
- Magi of the Forest 10%
REGULAR FOIL BIGGEST INCREASES (BID)
- exploding dwarf 200%
- xander foxwood
- silvershield archers
- Pirate captain
- grumpy dwarf
- jarlax the undead
- selenia sky
- Water Element
- Devine Healer
- crypt mancer 75%
- xia seachan
- prince rennyn
- Elemental Phoenix
- Undead Priest
- centaur
- hydra
- browne
- talia firestorm
- Goblin Sorcerer
- pirate archer 50%
The only 3 that went down in Bid Pricing were
Which to be fair usually means that some of the bids were triggered and the bid was fulfilled leading to the next highest bid to be actively the highest
- Cereberus 12.5%
- raging impaler
- ruler of the seas 9.64%
THE STATISICAL VALUE OF A PACK OF BETA (LISTINGS)
3/03 = $1.267
3/17 = $1.359
3/24 = $1.493
THE STATISTICAL VALUE OF A REWARD CARD (LISTINGS)
3/03 = $0.072
3/17 = $0.083
3/24 = $0.093
THE STATISICAL VALUE OF A PACK OF BETA (BIDS)
If you're looking to sell here's what the immediate liquid bids for cards are saying about pack value
3/03 = $0.668
3/17 = $0.718
3/24 = $0.896
THE STATISTICAL VALUE OF A REWARD CARD (BIDS)
If you're looking to sell here's what the immediate liquid bids for cards are saying about reward card value
3/03 = $0.039
3/17 = $0.046
3/24 = $0.052
PACK VALUE IS KING
Pack value takes into account the statistical distribution of cards it also how we know when pack sales start to pick up again.
And in the last 21 days it has gone up 17.8% on LISTING
But bidding has gone up 34% which to me shows the best sign of health. Because that means there are people with money set aside saying these cards are worth this much at the very least.
CURRENT PRICE vs list/bid
Now it would be nice to be able to track based on sales ... however that's a harder challege and would take much more time by hand. So we'll skip that for now... but that number lies in between both of these most likely. And may skew toward the LIST side.
REMEMBER
This is a pretty small market with the volume pretty low compared to most markets and that's divided between over 110 products so the volume on each of those is very low and sometimes zero in a full given week. So price stability is incredibly low with those kinds of number. But still worth tracking and being excited about.
INTERACT
We'd love to have these numbers for you some day. If you're interested comment here
Join our discord and get ready for Steem Communities to launch on Steem (first on steempeak.com)
Thank you for the work put in!
No problem it was almost fun... though i certainly wish it were automated. haha
Are we talking hours, days or weeks for card delegation to go live?
Wow almost $1.5 for a pack. Which means it's becoming less like gambling everyday. I'm hoping the common folk get to play in the pack flipping game this time, instead of the traders buying 550 at a time and then dumping in the marketplace.
Yeah i'm guessing the upper limit is about $1.65-1.75 somewhere around there we'll see pack flippers come back in.
That's basically only 10% away.
This will continue to be interesting as the packs themselves continue to be activey traded on Steem Engine! Looking to pick up some Alpha packs myself at some point soon!
Posted using Partiko iOS
Yeah i'd Love to know what the pack value is for alpha. But it is just so much work. haha
Maybe next time.
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