Fundamental analysis is like philosophy

in #investing6 years ago

What is investing based on fundamental analysis? Financial markets are a laboratory where you can test hypotheses. I like the comparison with philosophy but it's not exactly the same.

With investing you get a direct feedback from the market if your hypotheses was right or wrong. With philosophy that's not always the case. Market fundamentals are always changing so you need to keep adapting. That makes investing is a lot harder than philosophy. It's important to view the market in this way because you have to know what hypotheses are being tested. 

(For example: people who don't know what hypotheses are being tested will go short when the inverse yield curve goes under zero because longest bull market will end according to them. (This is the consensus among a lot of wall street option traders i know) While stagflation is a more likely scenario, it will be one of the driving forces of the next cryptocurrency bullmarket. )

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