US COVID Update (Weekend)

There really wasn't much new to report on the COVID front this weekend but we shall press on for now.

Fri-Sat saw new cases in the US drop by 3000+ while new deaths increases 100+ essentially on the strength on new "suspected" deaths in NY, NJ, and MI. Sat-Sun saw new cases drop another 8000+ and new deaths drop by almost 1000. It is weekend reporting though. It may be Tuesday before we can see better what is going on, but so far it looks like we're well on the steeper downward side of the curve. I will address the idea of a "second wave" further below.

Today I decided to take a closer look at the rolling 7 day new deaths average (usually called a Moving Average, the MA is the average each day of the previous 7 days of reporting -- It leads to a "smoothed curve" that can be more easily interpreted daily bar charts).

The MA new death chart quite clearly shows that new deaths on an MA line began the actual decline on April 7 (way before the daily numbers show-remember that we're talking 7 days at a time) and had a classic Bell curve until the "suspected" deaths began to be added a week later. Arguably the curve began on Mar 20 when new deaths "doubled" from 100 to 200, roughly. So, Mar 20 - Apr 7 is 18 days. 18 days from Apr 7 is Apr 25. What does the curve look like?

With the exception of a big spike on Apr 15 with NYC reporting a bunch (1000) of "suspected" deaths, the trend is as downward as the trend upward was, except it spikes up and down daily and MA quite severely (range -400 to +400) after Apr 15 depending on new "suspected deaths" being reported. By yesterday The "expected value" of the change in the MA was pretty much right where it was at the beginning of the Bell curve on Mar 20. Yesterday only NY (367) and MA (169) reported more than 100 new deaths. NJ reported 75, IL and CT around 60 each, and no other state reported as many as 50. Not nearly as many people are dying as a week ago. But, it is Sunday data, so . . .

What does this mean? I'm open to alternative interpretations, but it sure looks like even in the NYC area the virus is currently "under control" about as much as could be hoped for. Will there be a "second wave" of new infections if people are "allowed" (of if they just say screw it and do what they want) to return to the public spaces? Quite possibly, but the data seems to me to say we are better prepared for that, and it wouldn't be as bad as the first wave.

Besides, you can find reasonable suggestions that what we have been going through since Mar 4 is the second wave. There was a big upsurge in ILI (Influenza Like Illnesses) deaths reported by the CDC that couldn't be attributed to seasonal flu because most of the "excess deaths" tested negative for both flu A and B. Perhaps the COVID-19 was already here in December 2019. If so, that would force a re-evaluation of the complete story we have now.

This might also explain the news that some 4000+ inmates (nearly all in the prisons) in 5 of the Ohio prison system prisons were tested and not only did over 80%of them test positive, but 96% of the positives were asymptomatic.Many of the prisoners were also among the very vulnerable. Those numbers are amazing.

That is not a good base to extrapolate from, but given that the cruise ship found over half on it were infected and similar numbers (ore than 50% infected, but you're rarely told nearly 1/5 weren't tested) were asymptomatic, we might guess that the infection is way more widespread, perhaps as much as 20X or more, than previously thought, but that it is way less deadly. That would be good news for sure.

Finally, more data and evidence seems to show that the virus 'kills' differently than the flu in some very unexpected ways. (The current earliest known "coronavirus-related death" died of a heart attack, perhaps induced by the virus. It also seems to kill some otherwise healthy younger (<60 years old) patients through stroke. That may be an over-active immune system response. We may have been treating many people incorrectly by putting them on ventilators. (The usual expected death rate of people who go on ventilators is 50%. In NYC hospitals it has been near 85%.)

There will be a lot more research to be done, but for now we really need to base policy on what we do know and quit relying on models that have been wildly wrong.

So. Be serious. Continue to practice good health behavior. Take of yourself and others. Don't be hysterical.