US COVID Update (12-04-2020)

US new deaths dropped by 200. It's the first real drop in new deaths since the beginning. New cases dropped from yesterday by almost 4000. If the new cases stay at that level or less would be the best sign that we are past the peak.

NY new cases were just less than 9000 compared to almost 11000 yesterday, down 2000. And today there weren't 2000 new cases added just before midnight. That happened three days ago and yesterday, so we'll see if it happens tomorrow. The NYT says that hospitalisations and ICU admits are also down. A lot of people will still die in NY, but they are surely past the peak.

NJ was flat in new cases and up only about 20 from yesterday. It appears to be flattening. Possibly at their peak. CT is the only part of the NYC area that had an increase new cases of 200, but their new deaths dropped by 20. They are probably at peak. MA dropped 150 in new cases and a few in new deaths. It is probably just past peak.
MI dropped almost 100 in both new cases and new deaths. Probably just past peak.

CA, LA, PA, IL, FL all had drops in new deaths, and only IL had an increase in new deaths, but only 10 or so. It certainly looks like all are at or just past peak.
TX had 250 new cases (from a low base) but a few less new deaths. Hard to tell where it is -- maybe closely approaching peak?

GA, WA, MD, IN all had fewer new cases -- 500, 300, 50+, and 20+. All but MD had drops in new deaths, and MD was flat. Looks like all are at or past peak.

The next group of states CO, OH, TN, VA, NC, MO had small increases in new deaths (VA had 100 from a low base). ALL have fewer than 7500 total confirmed cases. All had flat or decreased new deaths. Again, probably at peak or just past.
At #22 in total cases with 3400, AZ one of the few that showed much difference with an increase of 100+ but flat deaths.

The rest of the states seem to be decreasing or flat in both new cases and new death, and only 3 have as many as 3000 total cases.

It really looks like all states are at or past the most stress on their hospitals. Most states (except notably right now NJ) are discharging more cases than they are admitting. That is very good indeed.

It is now certainly time to consider how and how fast to open up the economy again. We don't want to have a "bounce back" set of infections. But we also need to get the economy going again and to allow appropriate loosening of the restrictions.

Anyway, I understand the Easter Bunny has been declared, even by Gov Whitmer, essential, so there should be Easter eggs and candy.

Be serious and practice healthy habits. Don't be hysterical and have a Happy Easter.