INSTINCT (the gut) vs. HARD DATA
-- Richard Branson
Your Gut vs. Hard Data
How do we make decisions… I mean, after all -- some decisions can be life-changing. There's business decisions, family decisions, relationship decisions -- decisions about love and who and how you will spend the rest of your life… So making decisions.., and how we make decisions -- is actually pretty damn important.
We are surrounded by data… Some even say, today.., it is a data driven world. With surveys for everything, research groups that are paid to test and re-test.., and look at the numbers when all is said and done. And today, more than ever.., data is being gathered about you and your habits like never before… Think about all the data Google and Facebook have on all of us… And they use that data to further their business -- to make business decisions.
But does Mark Zuckerberg, Larry Page or Bill Gates use data.., like they do and did to build their massive companies and wealth -- when it comes to other aspects of their lives… When Mark Zuckerberg proposed to his girlfriend, did he have a bunch of analytics, graphs, charts and numbers with him when he was down on one knee, ready to pop the question. And to be fair, some would say marriage is the biggest decision of your life. That is until you are married.., and then comes yet another life changing decision of whether or not to have children, another biggie. I realize some people consider numbers -- do we have enough money to get married or have children…
and the rational mind is a faithful servant.
We have created a society that honors the servant
and has forgotten the gift." -- Albert Einstein
But I doubt very much, at the end of the day -- that those data minded decisions take the lead in these matters -- matters of the heart. And even 62% of business leaders trust their gut when it comes to the future of their companies. And real world experience -- insight, outweighs data. They believe that taking the chance on following your instincts gives them a "leg-up" on competition, creates a better work environment -- which can lead to bigger gains and removes the fear of failure.
It even gets crazier when you read studies that state the more complex, the more that is "on the line…" CEO's are relying on the emotional aspects as the key driver of their decision making. With over 700 senior level execs at huge money making companies said -- "any big decision can't be made in a vacuum of analytic." Even when it comes to choosing a business partner that could make or break their business life, they are relying on more subjective factors.., instead of hard data.
I have to say, to be completely honest -- I was was floored to read these statistics… And to be completely honest, again -- I am not a hard data guy. I come from a background of athletics, creativity.., and survival -- where instincts and your gut reign supreme. I didn't go to college -- I didn't see the value in it for myself (that's just for myself). I know that college and "higher" education benefit many people greatly.
Like being here on Steemit… I am blown-away at the level of intelligence and education that it must take to create "The Blockchain." I am not kissing butt, but I have huge admiration for guys like Dan, Ned and Blocktrades (I don't know your real name), plus many others and the immense undertaking it was to create such an innovative platform… And I would imagine there was quite a bit of data involved in such a decision (I would love to hear from you guys in the comments, if you are so inclined on data vs gut)…
Of course, these CEO's and alike don't rule out hard data, it is extremely important -- but seeing that most of them fall back on their gut actually made me feel good. It seems like a more human place to come from, when you use your emotional life, that feeling of -- YES, IM DOING THIS, I DON'T CARE WHAT THEY SAY -- and it pays off! That is a feeling that any amount of hard data and numbers cannot match. Standing on the edge and looking at the hard cold facts (data) that says -- this is not a good idea.., and doing it anyway because it feels right in your gut -- there's something so freaking human and freeing about that (especially if it pays off)…
-- Aristotle
Some even say, that these "big" executives rely on their gut.., because they don't have the skills or expertise to use or gather the data, that would lead to a "better" more informed decision. For example, a small group of analysts that looked at the hard data that told bankers.., that with relatively incremental interest rate rises, mortgage defaults would rise, increasing defaults.., and in the end -- the housing crash.
There claim was that.., had these senior bankers looked closer at the hard data instead of the more subjective side, they might have been able to avoid the crash. They shard this data with many of these executives that still even looking at the numbers couldn't believe that the "human" factor to the housing market would allow it to fail -- and they were wrong. The numbers, that data bore out.., and in this case could have possibly been a better choice for these bankers to follow… Some even say, using your gut over data can hurt the performance of you or your company.
It is possible that there is just too much data and numbers to absorb, today. And breaking it all down to a singular outcome is just to daunting a task… In the end, just like most things in life -- balance, would be the word I would use… There has to be a consideration of the hard data and your gut. I mean, if it were just about one or the other, there would be a heck of a lot more Mark Zuckerbergs out there, by just punching in some numbers, getting the data and letting it ride. Learning and accepting that each of these elements are just as important.., and should not be ignored.., can be the key to success. But never forget.., that little voice inside telling you to take that chance -- it could be the best decision you ever make…
REFERENCE:
https://www.gyro.com/onlyhuman/
http://mashable.com/2014/07/16/forget-big-data-business-leaders-still-go-with-their-gut-study-says/#7oL2GFZq7Zqc
http://www.afr.com/leadership/entrepreneur/aussie-executives-go-with-their-gut-instinct-20140915-jevxu
http://www.furstperson.com/blog/catch-22-starting-with-data-analytics
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I think the information that we can consciously process is dwarfed by the unconscious processes that are occurring without our conscious awareness. When people say their "gut" what IMO they are referring to are these unconscious processes that are working away in the background and I think they are a powerful tool.
I think you're right about this @cryptofiend
with both comments I mean
I agree... But when faced with data telling you differently -- what takes precedence?
I think it depends on the person - for many people ignoring that gut feeling is very hard! I think it is probably for evolutionary survival reasons. If your gut instinct in the palaeolithic past meant leaving an area it might have saved your life.
That survival instinct -- hmmm...
Very good post! I enjoyed it!
I posted something about intuition 3 months ago too.
It was about how many parents have said that their intuition was SCREAMING at them not to get vaccines that day, but they did because their doctor bullied them into it, and their child got seriously ill immediately afterwards.
The thing is, that we know our child better than any doctor or any pharmaceutical scientist and nothing is one-size-fits-all.
These parents regretted not listening to their "gut" or "instinct" or "the Holy Spirit" or whatever label they gave it --- they had facts that they didn't realize that they had and would have made a better decision than the one they were pushed into by people who did not take the time to assess them individually first.
Should We Listen to Our Intuition? -- Debbie Nantz tells Thomas' VaxXed Story
It's so important to listen to our gut/intuition...
I also posted about vaccines.., and how they are gearing-up to get everyone vaccinated without consent. For the people making/selling these vaccines, it's all about the money. It takes guts, to listen to your gut -- but it pays off, usually. Thanks for the comment @canadian-coconut.., and great post BTW!
Interesting topic. Your post reminded me of Malcolm Gladwell's book Blink. It's all about how we make split second decisions and following our instincts. You might like it.
Thanks @vir -- It sounds like a good read... Cheers!
Nice write-up @macksby :)
Thanks @justtryme90... Cheers :))
Great post and for me, the last paragraph was really crucial. How do we help 'translate' that indigestible data into something actionable?
Exactly, what the hell do all those numbers actually mean... :))
There will never be a substitute for actions from the heart, @macksby. Long live emotions! ;) Thank you for this. We must remember to keep a balance in our lives.
Thanks @ fairytalelife -- when we ignore or gut (heart), it's like we are ignoring our own truth -- what we know intuitively to be true. Cheers :))
Very cool article! I'm always a bit skeptical of statistics. There's too many variables and opportunities for biases. I love the world of science, but too many scientists seem to be in the pockets of rich companies waiting for pay outs. But it doesn't hurt to at least look at the stats. I tend to think with my "gut". Really interesting idea and your quote choices rock,
Yeah these days.., science seems to come down to -- who's side you're on... :))
Data driven insights are only meaningful if we are asking the data the right question in the right way... and we don't know what we don't know...
It is in uncharted waters that our gut helps a lot.
very good point!
I totally get that... Thanks @gavvet
Like you, I'm always heartened to learn about how successful people - particularly the ones I respect like Einstein, Steve Jobs, and Richard Branson- rely on their gut, their intuition. The data has never interested me too much and plus it can't address the whole picture, it only gives us part of the picture. With the housing situation, I think those selling bad mortgages knew what they were doing was risky and unwise but chose not to listen to their guts. As you've said, it seems like there is a unique mix of learning from history, looking at the data available and weighing in our guts that goes into creating good decisions and success stories. I really enjoyed this post @macksby, thanks!
The human touch, @natureofbeing!
Thanks @natureofbeing -- Obviously, people shouldn't ignore data.., but when your gut is telling you something different and you can feel it in your bones, you've got to follow it. And yes, the housing meltdown was a bunch of greedy people only thinking of how much money they could make and screw everyone else.
I think it's a little bit of both.
One of my tasks at work is to make forecasts (for call centers).
And although I go through various amount of data each day to make my forecast, I always go to the "gut" or inspiration or just the feeling that I have for that particular forecast.
As we like to put in in the office we mix the Art with the Science.
Art with the science.., that sounds like a pretty good mix. Thanks for the comment @sstefan :))