Will trade wars continue? Will the tariff on China be cancelled?

According to CNBC, analysts' reports from the Swiss bank Long'ao believe that Biden's victory can reduce some trading uncertainty. "Biden may take a more rational attitude towards bilateral trade, even in other areas, his team may show the same attitude towards China hawks as the trump administration." However, analysts at the bank said they did not assume Biden would automatically reduce tariffs on Chinese goods.

Xinqiang predicts that the two governments may first reevaluate the first stage trade agreement reached before, and some contents of the agreement will not exclude adjustment due to changes in the actual situation, and then continue negotiations on the basis of the first stage agreement. "From the perspective of the United States, the tariff imposed by trump is actually a" good chip "for Biden to continue negotiations. It is unlikely that he will take the initiative to cancel it."

At the same time, he pointed out that there are labor groups behind the Democratic Party, which has always been more inclined to trade protectionism than the Republican Party. In fact, Trump's position on trade issues is an "alternative" among the Republicans. Therefore, Xinqiang predicts that tariffs on China may be relaxed first in areas where the US people have suffered great losses, such as daily necessities, but other areas need more difficult and long-term negotiations.

An exclusive Reuters report in October quoted two senior advisers of Biden as saying that if Biden is elected, Biden will consult with major U.S. allies to seek "collective influence" to deal with China before making a tariff decision on China. The two advisers said the move was to avoid the mistake of repeating Trump's "US priority" agenda, which had angered several key US allies. According to the Washington Post earlier, Biden's aide was quoted as saying that he would "reassess the tariff on China", but no final decision has been made on this.

Another issue of widespread concern in the field of trade is whether it is possible for the United States under Biden to rejoin the trans Pacific Partnership trade agreement (TPP)? TPP is an economic and trade proposition during the Obama administration, which is generally believed to cause great pressure on China. However, the agreement has not been approved by the United States. After trump took office, he officially announced his withdrawal from the TPP in 2017, and the remaining 11 countries signed the "comprehensive progress agreement of trans Pacific partners" (cptpp) in March 2018.

In this regard, Dawei told the global times that it is possible for the United States to return to the cptpp, but it is very difficult. The agreement may face opposition from both parties in Congress, because joining the free trade arrangement has become increasingly "politically incorrect" in American society. In addition, to return to the cptpp, it will take time to negotiate with existing member states.