Are Cryptocurrencies and Digital Assets On Their Way To Testing The 1 Trillion Dollar Mark?
Fintech megashifts are happening.
To recap, here's a little something I've written about 11 months ago:-
Plenty of space for growth in cryptoland. We have seen Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other cryptocurrencies enjoying huge growths, even from their ICO (Initial Coin Offering). Future prospects are looking bright as well. Every cryptocoin is a set of values, and people buy into them. If every person has their own cryptocurrency, even better.
Consider this: Cryptospace at time of writing is approximately a 11-14 billion USD market. Fiatspace, or forex is approximately 6-7 trillion USD in market size. As more fiat gets sucked into crypto, the opportunities for ultra low-risk investing and market-filling becomes evident. Even if cryptospace takes 10% of fiatspace, the upside is more than thirty-fold.
Today, market capitalisation is at 89 billion dollars.
The crazy thing here is - the market was worth only 30 billion just a month ago! So it took 8 years since 2009 just to build up to a 30 billion dollar market, and then it only took a month for the next 59 billion dollars. So what's happening?
Blockchains are an exponential technology and its effects are kicking in - rapidly growing in network, trust, liquidity, and empowerment. Here's how exponential steps begin with modest numbers until it goes way beyond any human being's linear-based thinking - 0.01, 0.02, 0.04, 0.08, 0.16, 0.32, 0.64, 1.28, 2.56, 5.12, 10.24, 20.48, 40.96, 81.92, 163.84, 327.68, 655.36, 1310.72, 2621.44, 5242.88, 10485.76, and so on. To add to that, growing belief and dependency on cryptoccurrencies are supporting the market price on its way up. People are holding onto long-term value.
Megashift in powers are happening. Anyone can now fund anyone else without intermediaries. Individuals, organisations, and governments are getting in on the action. Authority and so-called experts are quickly becoming useless if clearly seen to be without "skin-in-the-game" on blockchain platforms. Also, the first countries to get in on magic internet money and fully adapt to it will most definitely become one of the richest countries in the future. A global market shy of 100 billion dollars is actually nothing much at all, in my opinion. Uber alone is currently valuated around the same price. What we're going through now is way beyond ride-sharing. In fact, we're dealing with the most widely used consumer product ever - money!
Most national currencies are losing its value due to a total lack of innovation and utter waste of resources eaten up by long chains of intermediaries. When there's a lack of faith or trust, money will move elsewhere. Bitcoin surpassing gold's price by a mile and all sorts of marketing done by different cryptocurrency communities are certainly grabbing lots of attention.
So when will the market test the 1 trillion dollar mark?
"Some things benefit from shocks; they thrive and grow when exposed to volatility, randomness, disorder, and stressors and love adventure, risk, and uncertainty. Yet, in spite of the ubiquity of the phenomenon, there is no word for the exact opposite of fragile. Let us call it antifragile. Antifragility is beyond resilience or robustness. The resilient resists shocks and stays the same; the antifragile gets better".
by Nassim Nicholas Taleb
To put into perspective, the market needs to grow to about 10 times the size of what it is now to achieve that first epic 1 trillion dollar global market capitalisation. Well I can't draw graphs to do any technical estimations and all that jazz, but I'm just drawing up that 1,000,000,000,000 number because we all like to have some yardstick figure for these kinds of stuff.
Many coins will most certainly fail in the future, but I think it's not so hard to imagine 10 Uber-sized decentralised organisations. When will all these happen is not so relevant because it WILL very likely happen. But for fun and not to be taken as financial advice, I'd say that the market will reach 1 trillion by the end of 2020 by my conservative estimates. Please note that I'm just a guy in his pyjamas lol. Not a financial expert here (and good luck finding one).
Some fear that regulations, security issues, and struggles that could happen along the way will cause setbacks in market price and activity. However, any obstacles will quite likely strengthen blockchain technologies and their communities. Now it's only a matter of utility and scalability. So choose the right coins for your main HODLs - the ones that are reliable, and ones that you can happily use everyday!
Images from Pexels.
It's never been bigger and closer to mass adoption than it is right now. People thought it would stop at pair with gold prices, but they were mistaken: this asset class is unlike anything we've seen before, and its cap is not yet known.
Enthusiastically upvoted!
@shayne
People were sure that Trump have no chance to win. I see the same situation here. World is just sick and tired of this whole fiat scam and manipulation. But I'm wearing pyjamas as well.
It's a revolution you can do in your pajamas lol
Yeap, I actually think my figures are very conservative, and would like to remain so!
I agree
wise
Some people call for a bubble. No such thing. Until at least 2-3 trillion are reached there is no such fear.
btw. the fiat world has much much more money than you mentioned. I wrote this 10 months ago. You will shit yourself if you realize how much value is out there. :)
https://steemit.com/money/@kyriacos/all-the-world-s-money-in-one-picture-and-why-whales-will-make-us-rich
Haha yeah it's a lot indeed. I can't even remember where I got those numbers from!
I agree with you on this one. There is so much money floating around. They don't know where to put it and rich people are looking for every opportunity to spread the risk. They just investing crumbs in Crypto for now and people talking about bubble.
exactly. we will soon find out that even the "big guys" of crypto will be overshadowed. Meanwhile, ride the wave boys
Same will happen with steemit.
Good one Kev!
Funny, love it.
Sure they are. Almost there :)
Prediction: not yet. I think we'll see a bubble pop before we hit $150 billion or sooner. Just a guess!
Haha.. that's nothing compared to the long-term potential :)
SQ Indeed.
;-)
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@defluyt/my-prediction-for-the-total-crypto-market-the-coming-years
well as one guy in his pyjamas to another - I think the bit we forget about too easily is the social context and the way that power gets moved around in society.
Sure this technology and the financial implications of it are going to go crazy (in the sense that it will not be or act like anything we've seen before). But if you and I had been hanging around Princeton or Cambridge in the late nineteen-thirties and bumped into Alan Turing, we might well have concluded that his theoretical machines would surely exist within a decade or so. But we could not have foreseen that these machines would have come about in the context of an horrific war with hundreds of millions dead at the end of it. I pray for peace every day, but we can't take for granted that the innovation we want to see will come about without some violent struggles.
On the other hand... to the moon!
True, it's a good reminder. I guess it's best to start communicating and building a culture that makes good use of the tech :)
In the long run, a trillion dollars will be nothing compared to where crypto goes. Remember that the derivatives market it quintillions and there is good reason why they could be entirely replaced by blockchain derivatives with much lower costs and much greater transparency.
In the short term, I am expecting a correction but can't put a figure on it. I don't think we'll go above $200 billion this year.
Yeap I'd prefer to state something way more conservative. I think blockchain's growth will be unprecedented past a threshold, and I think we've just gone over that. This is just something that has never happened before, it's tapping into a global pool - it's quite like a race.
I agree with your points. We're at the cusp of a wave, time to ride it all the way. :)
Steemit feeds help with this so much compared to fb feeds :P
Yeah :D
I like your idea of getting to a trillion via "ten Uber sized blockchains" - that's a good way of thinking about it.
I've been reading Nick Szabo's essays lately, and the more I do, the more cryptocurrency feels like it's only in its infancy. This technology has such a long way to go, and as it grows, the value will leap upwards ever higher.
Yup, it is - definitely could use more essays in this space too :)
Not before a big correction. $10 Billion to $100 Billion then a step back to $65 Billion. Later on in 2018 2019 1 trillion is possible.