Why I’m bullish on Bitcoin in the current uncertain stock market

in #bitcoin5 years ago

Bitcoin is the first ever non-correlated asset in the world. It is not tied to any country so is a unique store of value with deflationary properties, quite the opposite to fiat currencies the world over. It does not mirror the stock market or any trend, but is a financial law unto itself.
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As a result it is a place for capital to move to in times of uncertainty on the mainstream economic market. The current price spikes are just parabolic this past two months, and are taking Bitcoin to new highs for 2019. Stocks are over-extended at present and are taking a tumble in price. But Bitcoin is still climbing. In fact it has more than doubled in price already so far this year. What stock or share can say that? None can, not even gold or tech stocks. Bitcoin is in a league of its own. And that is why I recommend investigating in Bitcoin as a safe haven now.

The housing market may be a traditional safe haven too, but it was the bursting of the housing bubble in 2007 that caused the Great recession of that year. And housing may again be ready to roll over, to move into a downturn in price overall, from London to the US west coast, to Canada, as well as NY and Australia. The thirty year bull market in property in Australia is over potentially.

Even the mortgage rate or cost to borrow money to buy a house is going up. Added to that the major central banks, from Europe to the US Fed, China and Japan all are declining in assets.

Also the triple top on the Dow Jones, a multi trillion dollar market, is a seriously bearish indicator. The Fed may have raised rates this year already and want to raise rates still more but with auto loan defaulting already, it means the Fed may have to halt interest rate hikes for now. Other economies like the European and Asian actually have negative interest rates. People are being paid to take a loan, you are being paid to lose money in some cases.

This current monetary policy of the central banks is highly speculative and experimental so no one knows where this is heading, not even the Rothschilds. And then there is the “shadow banking sector” operating behind the scenes. They are also making waves. Overall global tensions are rising, like in the growing trade war between the US and China. Brexit has been dragging its feet for almost 4 years now, and even Theresa May has stepped down as Prime Minister of England, in failure.

I have a feeling that the elite don’t want Brexit so they are having it in name only, but not on the ground. It is a fake Brexit and the referendum is not binding, just saving face is what they are trying to do now. Turkey is also in a currency crisis, much like the other developing economies like mine in South Africa and others in South America. Besides that there is also a glut of oil and natural gas. This sounds good for us, but it will affect the selling economies, like Venezuela.

On the stock market oil and gas are over extended, and the global economy is slowing down so we will see a price drop for both energy sources. This will cause pressure on developing economies, including Russia, a huge gas supplier to the EU. Commodities are going to take a hit. Gold also is so manipulated, like silver, and price is suppressed, so there is a potential store of value there but not much profit to be make.

With all of this down trend in traditional markets, it seems like Bitcoin may just be the safe haven for investors this year, during the new bull trend. $20 000 may have been a great all time high (ATH) for Bitcoin in 2017 but this will be the lower range for the next bull run to the new ATH. It will make $20 000 look like a pit stop on the way to $200 000. Give it two more years at least. There will be some more volatility of course, with a possible retrace to the lows for re-accumulation, but in a year or two from now we will see new ATHs.

So even the “buy and hodl” mentality with Bitcoin at this time in the cycle is a great idea. Not financial advice of course, just my opinion, based on observation of the charts since late 2017. As an intermediate in the industry I have made profits in the past bull run in December 2017 and now I am starting to make profits in this new bull run of 2019. I am so bullish on Bitcoin right now that I see it going up 500% in the next 24 months, from the current level of $8000 all the way up to $40 000, just for starters.

So keep “stacking sats”, or continually buying more Satoshis (Sats or cents) worth of Bitcoin, in a process called “dollar cost averaging” where you buy a certain amount every month, regardless of current price. Whether you but at $6k or $8k right now will not matter too much when the price is 10x that, and you are taking profit in two years from now. Even if my time scale is a bit out by a year or two, you will still be seeing these huge price levels for Bitcoin at some point in the current bull trend. It has happened before and it will happen again, like clockwork. It is as inevitable as mathematics
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When the “Bitcoin halving” occurs in May 2020, about one year from now, there will be half as much Bitcoin produced for the same price as before, so obviously it will become more expensive to mine and thus to buy. Price will have to go up, that’s all there is to it. Especially since there is only 21 million ever to be mined. This will cause the deflationary price hike, which is the opposite of all fiat currency which is continually printed and thus going down in value with excess printing ad infinitum.

It’s all about the math and Bitcoin is built on math. Past stats speak for themselves in Bitcoin’s history, as we see in the previous two halvings. That’s how price rises, it’s built in to the math equation or smart contract that is the Bitcoin code. And that is why I’m so bullish about Bitcoin, why I would invest now, the rest is up to you. What is your opinion on Bitcoin as a safe haven and store of value or as an investment? I have made profits in the past, what is your experience of Bitcoin? Let us know in the comments below.

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Whilst I would be more than happy if BTC goes up... I'm not convinced that it is really a guaranteed long term proposition that it definitely will. You mention near the end, that it is mathematics... I'm afraid that I must take exception to that. The code and cryptography securing Bitcoin is mathematics... the rest is not mathematics...

There will come a time when the halving reduces the incentive to mine... and the transaction fees will have to be the main economic inventive to mine. Remember, scarcity alone does not mean that there is economic value... there is also the necessity of the network effects of usage.... and at the moment, even the most wishful interpretation for the adoption of Bitcoin is far far far from a critical mass of network effect! Halving only increases scarcity... but let's be honest to ourselves, the network effect of demand is just not there at the moment...

Again, I stress that I would be more than happy if BTC does take off... but hope shouldn't blind us to weaknesses in our analysis!

Good points there, halving will increase scarcity but we are still far from major adoption. Looking at the past chart price action makes me want to see patterns repeating in the fibonacci retracements and cycles, and in that way see price movement as mathematical. Whatever patterns happened in the past may well repeat, like the 85% retracement from the ATH and the next bull run, even though it may be slower and lower than the last bull run.

Yes... these patterns are really enticing... however, there are in-built assumptions that might or might not be valid!

My take (similar to yours) is that Bitcoin will go up significantly in 2020 - due to the imminent financial crisis.

But not from this present "bull run".

Yes good point, BTC may need to retrace 30% or so before continuing the bull run.

What do you think the inversion tells us? For about the past year short term (1 month) bond interest rates have been slightly higher than 10 year bond interest rates. This has happened months to years before all recent recessions, so economists are predicting a recession soon.

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Yes I wrote about that a while back, the inversion was the canary in the coal mine, suggesting that we had a year or something like that until the next coming recession. I forget the exact time frame but we are apparently due a stock market and economic recession, while at the same time ideally bitcoin will keep climbing.

Greetings, appreciated @julianhorack.

Bitcoin is the first ever non-correlated asset in the world. It is not tied to any country so is a unique store of value with deflationary properties, quite the opposite to fiat currencies the world over. It does not mirror the stock market or any trend, but is a financial law unto itself.

Wow!
This paragraph is loaded with strength.

You're right, Bitcoin is not governed by any indicator, in fact it is an indicator by itself. The price of the rest of the altcoins is adjusted or influenced to a large extent according to the behavior of BTC. Then the BTC price is a matter of study with unique characteristics and for which great market analysts specialized in BTC have been born. However, there is always uncertainty. There are factors that still remain a mystery to most.

I recently read an article where the relationship between BTC's large capital movements and its influence on the recent price hike was analyzed.
I wonder: to what extent the behavior of the BTC market can be manipulated?

Thank you for this interesting analysis of yours.

All best, Piotr.

Thanks for your positive feedback Piotr. The BTC market may well be manipulated occasionally by big orders. especially now with the low volume.

I agree. Bitcoin is a gold mine. It's just a matter of time before it goes above $20,000. As whacky as John McAfee is, he may be right. Bitcoin could hit $100,000. Thought I think his timeline is off.

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