BTC - Return to the mean signaling a lift off is imminent?
What if the current bitcoin price represents a return to the mean?
Some think bitcoin is extremely undervalued currently, while others think it is extremely overvalued, I guess it just depends on what camp you find yourself in going forward.
There is the camp that thinks bitcoin will eventually take a large chunk of the current gold market, even just taking something like 10% of the gold market would mean bitcoin prices would still need to go up 5-6x from here.
Then there is the camp that thinks bitcoin will either be replaced, outlawed, or just whither on the vine and die.
And as you might have guessed, there is quite a wide range in between those two.
Excluding all of that, the charts are possibly telling us something quite interesting right now...
We are likely very familiar with the phases of a bubble chart.
It looks something like this:
(Source: https://twitter.com/ByzGeneral/status/1182650984323002370)
Unfortunately for us, we are likely too familiar with this chart as it looks almost exactly like bitcoin's price chart from 2016-2018.
However, if that return to the mean line were to continue on bitcoin's chart it actually gets very interesting...
It's starting to look interesting...
What if the current price action is the start of the next bubble phase?
What if the big move up from $3k to $14k was the start of the "take off phase" and this recent pull back was the first bear trap?
You know, something like this:
(Source: https://twitter.com/ByzGeneral/status/1182650984323002370)
If that is indeed the case, then the next 18 months or so would be very interesting for the price of bitcoin.
There is no guarantee that is how things will play out, but there is no denying the setup is there.
What we actually end up doing from here remains a mystery, but the good news is that we won't have to wait long to see if things play out like this or not.
Sure would be nice to see another nice big fat bubble chart again. :)
Stay informed my friends.
-Doc
Bitcoin real value to me in 6 months is around $6400 on mining production cost after the halvening but with all the speculation, it will moon like usual. Who knows lol
How do you come up with that number?
Weird, my number is also $6400 from bitcoin doubling in value every year starting at $100 in 2013.
It's already been $6,400 this year ;)
And it can be again… just like when you load a spring. Then we’ll have another dizzying growth, and then bungee jump again… like in your hyperwave graph ;)
That corresponds with my longer term projection — see the red dotted line in the last graph:
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@lighteye/bitkoin-khipertalas-ili-kako-ne-stradati-na-kriptovalutama
Text is in Serbian, and it explains that you can get real price of Bitcoin by simply connecting all the lowest points on the historical price graph. Everything above that (black line with red dots) is a speculative price.
It’s a hard number to come up with, currently it’s around $4500 on average for a miner to mine bitcoin depending on its location and energy cost. With the halvening coming in May, it should double somewhat.
When looking at assets if that what bitcoin is, I always look at the production cost like silver and gold. Can we see it dip to around $6400 this year give or take, I think so but it might be front ran around $7k for the pump toward 2020...
I’m just speculating like everyone else 😂
Yea, I am curious where you came up with that $4,500 number as it varies wildly depending on what part of the world you are in. Even using that number, which is on the low side from everything I have read, the cost to mine would jump significantly above that $6,400 number post halving, no?
It was an old average number a year ago, could be around $5000 now but it’s a guess and some calculation research from lots of articles.
Also institutions want to buy bitcoin lower and there time may come shorty so they can sell high in 2020.
My estimate would suggest it will cost like $7000-$8000 to mine bitcoin after the halvening. But what do I know, I’m just a STEEMIAN lol
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Im not someone that believes in Bitcoin. It basically has value.... because.
Its outdated and it had its time to establish itself as a game changer. It did its part.
What im hoping for is a altcoin bull market after which the altcoins will retain value instead of running off to daddy. (Or grandpa in this case)
The value proposition of bitcoin compared to altcoins is very low in my opinion.
Still. As it stands bitcoin leads the pack.
This cant last imo since as time goes by other tokens will start getting recognition and trust.
Ethereum being one. Eth as well is below Steem based on all fundamentals but it seems that this incoming bull market will show its strength or the lack of it.
Xrp as being the 3 in the list is pretty much trash and i expect it to drop off over time.
Yep, as Ethereum fully transitions to POS, it will be interesting to see what it can do. As of now, there is no reason any decent sized app could do much on it.
Like you I think bitcoin will always be there as the grandpa store of value token. It has first mover advantage and it has the name brand. The fact that bitcoin hasn't been upgraded much is a feature more than a bug in my opinion. Let it hang out there as the giant digital store of value in the back ground.
Other tokens with real utility should gain adoption and value, eventually. I would have thought steem in particular would have been much further along by now, but there are possibly a whole host of reasons why it is not, but that is a topic for another post. :)
Steem is a weird cookie. Id base its failures on the base incompetance of Steemit.inc.
I dont think there is any DPOS or POS blockchain out there that can have their main dev team make so many mistakes and still be standing.
That should be proof of how resilient Steem is.
If steemit.inc did nothing, put in a marketing effort and simply killed the inflation we would still be in top 20.
As it stands now wer in a really good place moving forward. We will need adjustment but as a 3 year old blockchain theres so much kore to expect from Steem. Where was Btc at 3 years old? Where was Eth?
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Well ETH is a bad example as it only launched about 8 months before steem did... but I get your point. :)
And the inflation is interesting. I feel like the inflation is needed to bring people in, but if the inflation is too much it crashes the price which causes people to not touch it. It's a delicate balance and one that wouldn't be as much of an issue in a bull market, but in a bear market... it's well... a bear!
Sure. But eth released full featured. Steem didnt. Smts are something that was supposed to come in its first year.
The bull market is short. Since the bear market is now almost 2 years long inflation hurts the price greatly.
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Good point. I mean it only took 3 years for the beta tag to be removed from the flagship app, though, with all the changes still being made it's arguable that the tag probably still wasn't ready to be removed. :)
The great thing about holding is that it really doesn’t matter as long as adoption continues. The pace will eventually accelerate and start to determine value and price!
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Yep, that is the hope!
The train should wait for me still trying to sell some assets to get into the btc market
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