Blackmarket SP sales. How much would you sell your SteemPower for if you could?
Steem is very clever in the way it keeps SteemPower(SP) locked away from you for 2 years and also that it is non transferable.
$1870.90 is what my wallet says my SP is worth
because 1223.251 steem x the average steem price of $1.52 = $1870.90
If I had 1223.251 Steem instead of SP this would be a true valuation
But as SP it is not a true valuation. During the 2 years I wait to convert SP to steem the supply of steem will increase over 500%(very rough calculation)
This years inflation rate of 340% x next years inflation rate of 100% would be over 500%
So the steem I would receive over 2 years will be 5 times less of the total supply than it is today.
you could argue steem will increase in price by 500% over the next 2 years but it could also drop by the same amount.
The only way to determine the true value of 1 SP would be to see how much it sells on the free market.
But we cannot because you cannot transfer or trade SP.
So the only other way would be to create a black market for steem accounts where you sell the account to someone by giving them your password.
I'm not planning to do this myself but I'm sure someone else will do soon if not already.
So the question I'm asking you all is:
How much Steem would you pay for taking over an account that only contains 1 million SP?
A few things you failed to factor in...
Thanks for the shout out, @billbutler. One thing I learned over time (and posted about in other posts in the comments) is the Steem Power increase we see in our wallets probably shouldn't be thought about as "interest" but instead as protection against share dilution. It's like a stock split in that you get new Steem Power based on your VEST holdings. https://steemstats.com/ tracks that as well, which is helpful. And yes, I think it's supposed to settle around 12% annually in about 8-9 months (though right now its really high).
SBD earn 10% per year not SP
What you're missing is that your SP goes up WITH the inflation. That's part of the point. Non-locked away steem that is liquid is indeed subject to the high inflation effect. This is on purpose to keep people from doing massive dumps of liquid steem.
I didn't know that, so it is good to know..thanks.
I understand that if I keep SP I will receive more steem power overtime. But if you power down steem over 2 years, during those 2 years your quantity of steem won't be increasing . So by the end of the 2 years your steem will be a smaller share of the total supply than it was before you started powering down.
I've actually seen people offering 0.4x your SP in USD as BTC for accounts. Which was about a week ago, so I presume is still about right.
I think I would pay no more than 0.2x if I was going to.
So, if we reverse that, you're willing to sell at 0.4?
I would be if I had a huge balance of SP and didn't mind losing my username. I'd definitely sell at 0.4X
Unless I misunderstand something with 500% inflation in 2 years assuming same market cap as today that makes 1 steem will be worth $0.31 in 2 years.
So why not receive 0.4 per SP today and decide how much to invest or not in the future?One reason is that by giving out your SP, you are losing also your SBD rewards from your own posts, Also another factor is that you can per week release part of that SP and sell it at current value which much higher than the $0.4.
All in all I am so confused with the maths of steem and this is the main reason I don't feel safe to invest in it irrespective that I really like it a lot and is part of my daily reading posts here.
But to answer the OP question, I don't think I would sell my SP power even if it is small or big because I don't know how big Steem can get within the next 2 years.
I haven't read the whitepaper yet so this may be the reason i am so confused...
The key point here is 1 Steem is worth more than 1 Steempower. Why? because steem can easily become SP but not vice versa.