Thoughts on Steem and cryptocurrency in general.
Well, it's been a difficult week. Hard Fork 20 is now successful. There is a blue bar at the top of the screen where a red bar used to reside. The blue bar says that Hard Fork 20 has stabilized.
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Excellent.
My initial plan, before the fork even began, was to pull some of my Steem out and put a little bit into EOS.... and then take a little bit out because I'm kind of needing some money right now.
If you hadn't heard, EOS was having some issues with collusion among the Chinese block producers. I was thinking that it could possibly crash the price down to about $5. That would have been a really good entry point.
However, the price really never dipped down very far. I think it is at about $5.75 right now which is close to where it's been for most of the week.
Steem, on the other hand, had some very difficult issues with the Hard Fork. Issues are to be expected but sometimes they can really screw with a coin's price and the attention of it's users.
I was frustrated to see that the price of Steem had fallen down to $0.88 today according to Coinmarketcap.com, but I was even more frustrated to see that the price on Bittrex was actually $0.82.
It seems like a bad move to pull any money out at that point. I definitely still see a strong future for Steem but I think the future is going to deal a lot more with social media activities, like quick photos uploaded from your phone to a fun Steem based crypto site that other users can message easily and interact with.
A fun, quick, profitable experience that someone sitting at a booth in a restaurant can do while waiting for the partner to arrive.
I don't really think we can survive as a true blogging platform, but fortunately we are headed in multiple directions. To be perfectly honest.... it is a difficult proposition to try to guess which way we will go. However, there is a ton of potential for us to go up hard.... especially if we can manage to decouple from Bitcoin.
On the topic of Bitcoin, most people that I see today are calling this the bottom. Nobody can truly say for sure, but there are several strong bullish signals....such as the New York Stock Exchange backed cryptocurrency exchange called BAKKT coming onto the horizon.
Additionally, it just feels like the time when Bitcoin should start rising. It usually happens around this time of year. We might have another drop, but I suspect will finish the year off right around $10,000 for one Bitcoin. Much lower than we had originally predicted.... but better than where we are now.
However, that doesn't mean that 2019 is going to be a promising year either. It's very possible that we could fall down to three or four thousand dollars during the year 2019 before we truly hit our highs in 2020. I wouldn't necessarily put all of my eggs in any particular basket. The Bitcoin basket is a very volatile one.
On the topic of ICOs, I see a lot of people being excited about new projects on the horizon. Well, that is very difficult thing for me because I was involved with the project that failed. There were a few bad actors involved and a few different people that I would rather just not talk about right now. However, I can tell you that ICOs and new projects have a lot of risk involved even if they seem like they're an absolutely sure thing.
Everybody always says don't invest more than you can afford to lose but I look around me and I see so many people that have. I read the newspaper and I see people that have lost 96% of their Investment Portfolio because they put all of it into cryptocurrencies.
Cryptocurrencies have a lot of potential to rise up but they have an equal potential to fall to the floor. It's entirely possible that Bitcoin could hit $30,000 by the end of this year, and then go down to $2, 000 sometime next year. Nobody knows for sure.... but that's the way the game goes sometimes.
Be careful with your money.
They sure do have a lot of risk. It makes you think twice doesn't it? I see ICOs more and think nah
You said it.
Yes steem really is at a fork in the road (pardon the pun). The real question now is are accounts cheap enough for DApps to onboard new users. If you need 30 steem to transact on an account then that’s simply not a feasible amount for companies to stake per user (even at 80c steem). Time will tell where that number ends up.
That's true as well.
It is sad to hear that people are suffering real-world losses because of the crypto-market. I hope they were young people with lots of time to make up for their mistakes.
The rest of us should be limiting our exposure to just 1 or 2% of our portfolios.
If Bitcoin and the rest take off, that 1% will grow to be a big deal. If it tanks, there is no big loss.
The third possibility that no one seems to talk about is that this could be the steady state condition of the crypto market. The total market will keep growing, but the gains will be spread out over more new tokens and none of them moon.
We will have to wait until the next business cycle is complete before we know.
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I don't think anything's going to Moon the way it did before. There may be a few exceptions but I don't think we're going to be looking at a rich man's market for a while.
Great, honest assessment from you here... The reality is that despite all the technological advances and thinking this time is different, we are still in an immature market when it comes to blockchain and cryptocurrencies. Most of the projects out there still would be considered early adopters if involved. Given the speculation of 2017, prices exceeded value so we are in a normalization period where projects now need to execute roadmaps and prove their use cases. We will see many fail but those that survive will lead the technology forward to improve and evolve past the challenges of regulation, security and adoption.
I think things going to tough for a while.
haha i hope bitcoin go down to 2000-3000 so i can buy :P
The only thing i am curious about is Steemit especially during 2019!
Well if Bitcoin goes down then I guess we can pretty much guarantee the rest of the market will also.
and then although for the moment we gonna be poorer, long term we gonna be richer :P
I sure learned the hard way and I'm not doing that again, no sir.
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Me too. However, I think a lot of people are thinking the same way that we are and that's part of what's keeping the price from rising up. Everyone wants to be sure that they're capable of taking profits this time around.
Your overall assessment of bitcoin is an interesting one that I think could very well play out, but in the end, it's all up to whales, regulations and adoption. I agree that 2020 will likely be a bigger year for bitcoin than 2018 or 2019. Perhaps 2019 will be the year for a few other coins and not really bitcoin, Etherium and Ripple being the most likely, but probably a few others (hoping for Neo and EOS). Or maybe there will be some big development and bitcoin will really explode earlier than that. A lot of these projects need time to develop what they've been promising and a lot of bad projects need to disappear before things stabilize a bit, but I am not complaining. The longer it takes, the more crypto I'll have when it happens.
As for steem, it seems like they aim to eventually turn steemit into a hub for the currency steem while the social media happens on different apps. I think in order to avoid the feed becoming too unmanageable, they will turn steemit into a kind of portal site where you filter your feed based on which apps you want to see content from, and we will move our activities to apps based on how much of the reward pool they attract and their function. The apps will be more exclusive in that you will only see posts that are posted from within that app, so not like busy, more like dsound or dtube. I'm hoping for a good blog based app like that eventually.
The truth is that change needs to happen and it needs to happen soon. We need to have multiple avenues that are functional, fun, easy, and very usable for the common man.... because there's a lot of competition on the market. Competition could be a good thing, but you have to honestly understand that it can also be a bad thing.
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